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Facebook, Inc. (FB) Message Board

  • jjmacauley jjmacauley Nov 23, 2012 9:29 AM Flag

    FB Target Price...$30?

    I don’t accept the premise, suggested in another commentary that the Market Value" of FB or GOOG is solely predicated on the relationship that exists between their "Share Count" and "Expected Revenues". In fact, I can think of a number of other metrics that should also be considered….just as you can. But, let's accept the proposed "Algorithm" to arrive at the price conclusion. My first concern is with the Selected Data presented by “Bubbleburston”. GOOG 2013 revenue is projected to be $52 Bill. FB Rev = $6.45 Bill. GOOG today has 330 Mill Shrs outstanding. FB has 2.2 Bill. Therefore......Rev/Shr for GOOG = $157. FB Rev/Shr = $2.93. Applying his/her Algorithm.... FB should be priced at 1.86% ($2.93 / $157) of GOOG $666 market value..... or $12.38. However, the projected 5 year growth rate he/she quoted for GOOG is not 45%.....its 13.45%. The projected growth rate for FB = 26.95%....double that of GOOG. So, applying his/her logic.....if $666 is a fair price for GOOG....given FB growth rate....then $24.76 would be a Fair Market Price. Current FB price....$24.32. Is that a “Fair Price”? According to “Bubbleburston” arguably that depends on whether GOOG is overvalued or undervalued? If you believe the analysts……. GOOG should be $800....20% higher than its current price.. By extension then….. using the "Relative Pricing Model" of “Bubbleburston“....a Target Price of $30 for FB....should also be fully supportable. What do you think….given what we know today....on a fundamental basis is $30 a Fair Target Price for FB?

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