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Facebook, Inc. (FB) Message Board

  • glass_haf_full glass_haf_full Jan 17, 2013 9:08 PM Flag

    FB: !0% return in 10days, 50% return in 1 year

    Looking at the current state of FB stock, I think it's a sure thing to expect a return of 10% before earnings (to $33/share) and 50% in less than one year (above $42/share). My reasoning:

    FB is surely going to report good results in 10days - much better than last quarter. This is based on the rise of digital advertisement in the 4th qtr and the extremely positive reports from customers of the FB exchange and their other advertising services. The service is not only being well adopted but those customer are getting great results. As a result, I see a min of $33/share as the worst case and $38 best if they report solid earnings in mobile ads. The pros know this and you will see FB stock rise to this point by earnings

    Currently we are at $30 and change so I expect a runup to $33 before earning....since there is almost no downside risk. After earnings, I would expect to see a host of target upgrades - from the $35 now to $45-$55 12-month targets. Right now there is really only one data point for analysts. After this qtrly report, they will have 2 data points and be able to safely ,model the revenue and earning potential for the next 12-24months. With this, expect the upgrades to come out in 24-48hrs after earnings.

    When you factor in the 19% growth in 2013 retail ad spending(Gartner) and the fact that FB is growing market share, these ranges are easily justified.

    Do your own DD but these returns are being handed to you gift-wrapped by the market.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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