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Facebook, Inc. (FB) Message Board

  • james90217 james90217 Jan 24, 2013 2:25 PM Flag

    Earnings (any intellegent thoughts)

    Obviously this can go one of two ways, the earnings report could be positive or they can miss a mark or say something to scare investors away. Does anyone have a logical analysis of why they think it will go a certain way? Right now I'm 50-50. I think there will be a big price movement after earnings but not sure which way. The obvious play is to have a put and a call but the premiums are so high on this the stock would need to move damn near $4 one way or the other before seeing any profits. Just interested in hearing intelligent thoughts on this....

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    • My 2cents (I am long in FB). I see this quarter as an easy beat only because expectations are fairly low. We have had good reports from the online ad market in general in the 4th qtr. Most reports I have heard was very positive about the adoption of FB Exchange. Given Google's beat, it seems likely that FB would have a solid beat.

      I think there are 2 possible areas of risk in the report: 1. Costs increasing at unexpected rates. 2. Less growth in Mobile than anticipated (Goog had weakness there) A 3rd may be expectations around Gifts but I doubt anyone was expecting material impacts from this.

      Despite the risks, I feel very good about my position heading into earnings. The only thing that would have me exit some before is a run to $35. In that case I may take back 1/2 of my position.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to glass_haf_full
      • I mostly agree here (also long FB). I don't think mobile is that big of a risk in this report, though. Facebook has made great strides in their mobile ad product this quarter and should beat out google's relative advances in this area. The only thing that could turn this around is if, as you suggested, the cost of maintaining these new mobile products rises too much. We'll see.

        I do worry about expectations of Gifts though. If Gifts is a "dud" this quarter, thoughtful investors should realize it is still a very young product but bashers will have a field day with it, citing how even over the holiday season no one used gifts etc...

        Good luck everyone.

        Sentiment: Buy

    • Really nothing intelligent on here anymore, too much bashing and hyping.

      As long as they meet expectations - which appears very likely - and don't give any bad guidance, FB should inch back up to IPO price and satisfy everyone in the next quarter.

      Sentiment: Buy

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