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Facebook, Inc. (FB) Message Board

  • eyesandears51 eyesandears51 Jan 30, 2013 10:14 PM Flag

    Flashing Yellow Caution Signs

    My Take: A credible but not specular quarter, in line with expectations but.....Therein lies the problem. FB is priced with the expectation of blowout quarters, with forward guidance to match. At 47 PE and 2+ 5 year PEG, share price is lofty absent accelerating growth and guidance. Officers/Directors/Insiders also recognize this reality, as evidenced by strong selling during the recent reporting period. 253,224,000 shares sold @ high $20's to low $ 30's vs 47,846 purchased none @ market price. The share price retrenchment over the past 3 days has been confirmed by high volume and weakening technicals'; MACD, Short Term KST, RSI, Williams %R, Commodity Channel Index, Up/Down volume pattern indicates that the stock is under Distribution, with shares close to dropping below 20 day SMA. Furthermore, short positions, while not yet excessive are rising to nearly 5.5% of float.

    Near term conclusion is that stock is range bound mid $ 20's to low $ 30's, without a positive catalyst. $ 25-$27 is a reasonable risk/reward adjusted buy level until that catalyst is manifest.

    Comments and fact based alternative perspectives encouraged.

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    • Your prescient comments are playing out in today's market. ST Price target of $ 25 $ 27 is credible.

    • Thought provoking commentary, with reasonable price entry target of $ 25- $ 27.

      • 1 Reply to crkenmore
      • FB down in after hour's by a meaningful 3.43% to $ 30.17, below the $ 30.88 low and $ 31.24 close in the regular session. Late trading is frequently a harbinger of trends the following day. FB was in the $ 27 range as recently as earlier this month. FB rise has been coincident with overall market appreciation since the beginning of January. Many expect a 5-10% pullback between now and the end of February when we re-visit the golden oldie Washington horror movie " the sequester panic ". A ratable reduction in FB share price would be $ 27.15-$ 28.66. FB, however is higher beta than the overall market and could decline to December 28 low's of $ 25.15. While a potentially negative externality is looming in the next 30 days, I am not aware of likely positive catalysts prior to the next earnings report 3 months hence. This is why in a knowably uncertain world, the risk of a lower price from current levels is higher than the likelihood of significant appreciation.

        My projections are based only on the next 30-60 days, longer term I am more sanguine.

 
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