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Facebook, Inc. (FB) Message Board

  • songciti songciti Feb 4, 2013 10:07 AM Flag

    Hillside Starts at Buy, $37 Target !

    Hillside Starts at Buy, $37 Target

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • staggering sell through data point numbers "7.2 Trillion posts fed through the newsfeed on Facebook during 4Q12". management must now mine this "human capital " and monetize it's value proposition for shareholders.

      "Overall we believe this leaves room for further sellout, but when taking into account the fact that mobile is likely to be the driver of most future Facebook use there is significantly more room to increase news feed sellout. For example, we estimate that sellout of mobile news feed posts was 1.1% in 4Q12 or 25% of PC’s 4.2% sellout. We believe mobile sellout could increase by as much as 10X before user ad fatigue becomes an issue. Here are our assumptions:There are 3.2B comments and “Likes” per day on Facebook, according to the Company. Assuming only 4% of all posts are either “Liked” or commented, there were 7.2 Trillion posts fed through the newsfeed on Facebook during 4Q12. We assume that 75% of total news feed posts came from mobile since 64% of users are mobile users and the Company has said they are twice as active as PC users. We estimate mobile news feed CPMs were $5.21 and PC news feed ad CPMs were $5.37 in 4Q12. Given the revenue and CPM figures we can back into news feed ad impressions served."

    • Good time to pick up more. Just did. Lots of upside at $27-$28 a share.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

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