Well, okay, the YHOO financial board has one spam. But all other boards are crazed with spam! This FB board is nearly half spam! I want some intelligent opinions on stocks. Not spam and angry people being mean. I may be new here but this spamming is getting the Zena Warrior inside me pretty darn ticked. How can we stop it? It's like walking through streets covered in litter. Doesn't have to be this way. We need to fight back! But how, is the question... And how is it, the YHOO Board is so darn clean??!! Go take a look!
We will close the gap at 29.73 - 29.06. Technically we have strong support now at 28 and a little resistance at 29, 30, 32. A move to 30.32 will signal a Fib trend reversal of the down trend (32.47 - 26.84).
But most importantly is the cup and handle (as I see it) formation that is happening. A move to 32.51 will complete the handle. Per cup and handle rules, if a break out occurs past 32.51 on strong vol, we should go up the same amount as the depth of the cup (about 15). This puts us at about $47, which coincidentally is slightly above the IPO day high and ALSO a new 52 week high. And you know what they say about 52 week highs right .... the stock keeps hitting higher 52 week highs (just look at GOOG).
If the market can keep going for another 6-8 weeks, I think we stand a good chance at being in the mid 40's soon, followed by a reversal back to 32-ish.
My 2 cents ... or more accurately my $115,000. Buy more on the dip to 28.05 tomorrow ;).
You are predicting almost 70% rise through all this crud? Let me clarify a few things if this were a cup and handle (and that is a big if) It already tried to break and failed look back at January 29. This handle is almost 2 months long. And finally if you are basing a breakout on a C&H you should get about half the depth of the cup.
32 is a strong resistance and 28 is not a support.
A few observations
FB does not break off the pole or gap. Take a look at October 23rd. However, that was a signal for bull run. When it came back and retested where it broke away it ran. Most failures came off of a lack of conviction at the top.
The safest and surest money is the the few days behind break away. It is also the same on the short side. A couple of days behind the down trend.
GOOG ran off the pole but when it completed the pattern it would consolidate or correct for 3-6 months sometimes more with the exception of the first year and a half. Breathers, retraces and consolidation periods are normal and healthy for a stock. These were the same for stocks like IOM (Iomega), IMNX (Immunex), MSFT, CSCO, RHAT, CROX. It is the same thing with NFLX and LNKD. I think everyone is looking for another TRLG or DNDN with a huge quick move. Wont happen with FB.
A cup and handle and any numerous types of flags or pennants are low percentage calls because most people try to fit them to their expectations. These patterns often work well with the small runs. Right now if you were short and rode the trend you made money. If you rode the big run a few months back, you did great.
I tend to believe but I did not confirm that FB will probably see 32 this quarter. That is a big hard ceiling. However if it gets past that point it does not mean it will run. Sorry no C&H nor no 47 this quarter unless something unpredictable happens but that is the same with all stocks.
Hey, thanks guy11288. This is very helpful. I was afraid to pick up some shares with what I've read on this board. (Don't get me wrong, my decision is not based solely with what I read here.) I'm starting to realize being negative is the prevailing attitude with many of these posts. I just think FB has its fingers in many pies. So, why not grab a few shares. At least my toes will be in the water. Thanks again. I'll keep an eye out for more of your posts!