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Facebook, Inc. (FB) Message Board

  • gf995 gf995 Mar 19, 2013 1:52 PM Flag

    FB is not a mature stock .....

    You don't price a growth stock that has only reported publicly a few times, and that is unique in its niche, by using Graham numbers, EPS and free cash flow. Guidance and perception matter hugely, and the company keeps bashing its own future and offering negative guidance.

    FB is sitting on a surplus of $7 billion cash and is trading at 5x BV.

    Yelp is at 10x BV, P is at 20x BV and LNKD is at 22x BV. FB is the cheapest of all the recent tech IPOs.

    Sentiment: Buy

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    • Facebook is a mature company but I agree that FB as a stock is not a mature stock. During guidance they are saying they do not care about share value and they will do what they want.

      Now there are two ways to value FB 1 A non-GAAP and 2 A GAAP. Non-GAAP is well known and used to value growth stocks. FB earned $.50 something non-GAAP and $ 0.03 GAAP. If you look 10 years back at PCLN, you will see that they sat in the doghouse and no matter what they did the market shunned them. The finally broke out again many years later.

      In Facebook's cc, they warned and said they will spend a lot. They are forcing the market to view them by GAAP multiples instead of non-GAAP multiples.......They directed the market's eyes that way. They said they will hire a lot of new people and they will spend a lot this year. They warned prior to the ipo that they weren't concerned with trying to cater to investors who invest in FB but that they are directing their company focus inwards. They appeared to have changed their tune and looked like they were creating share holder value by boosting revenue and creating ways to earn more money. They are now saying, "We don't care about share holders"

      I don't want to be a conspiracy theorist but it seems as though they tried to gain shareholder value through the lockup expirations. After that they said basically they will do it their way. Look at Sandberg........She is certainly doing it her way and she has no regard for the people who put their faith into FB by buying shares.

      In the long term FB may do fantastic. If they keep playing the game they are playing, they will be in Street's doghouse. They will lose preferential treatment while stocks like LNKD basque in the market's favor. They need to do something during next earnings and they have to sell their story and do things which will favor the market. If they don't it wont matter what they are or can be. They will be valued in a non growth methodology.

    • First intelligent post in a week. 34 fib extension.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

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