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Facebook, Inc. (FB) Message Board

  • cavanyc@sbcglobal.net cavanyc Mar 22, 2013 8:15 AM Flag

    Cramer's cup and handle broken ....

    The cup and handle chart formation was broken with a close below 26 signaling a break of support and buying. 22 now appears a very strong possibility.

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    • There was an inverse head and shoulders pattern, not a cup and handle. There are several cup and handle requirements. In this case, the cup is too deep. Another requirement is that there is a price rise into the cup, but we don't have that either. Check out Bulkowski's encyclopedia of chart patterns and you'll see that FB doesn't meet the requirements. You should be more concerned of the neckline on the inverse H&S.

    • The C&H failed during the end of January. It went down a little bit and broke above the rim of the cup and failed. Even at this point, it was a bad pattern as most are.

    • Ordinarily the H&S pattern would seem to suggest a drop down to $20-22. However this is FB, and because this has become a completely emotional story stock, subject to timing, terrible guidance, botched IPOs, and can move with any guidance at all, you can't say for sure.

      It's just as likely that it will hover around the $25.91 mark or above, simply because it's April and earnings season is coming. NO one thinks guidance will be as bad this time, or that FB is going to miss terribly lowered revenue estimates.

      At worst, this is a H&S pattern with a drop to $20, at best, we retrace up to $29 in anticipation of earnings. Thus there is a very real chance that the stock stays where it is for the next month as speculators keep rolling in to buy a bargain FB.

      If the COO or CEO would say something positive about the stock next week we all know it would jump 10%. So with this low volume and the vernal equinox and the Sandberg book tour not promoting FB, there are too many issues at play to give up on support at $25.91 or $26.50.

      I just don't think Sandberg wants to be out promoting her book while answering questions about pricing FB at a $38 IPO price and her being COO while the price falls again to $22. Seems unlikely. Stay tuned.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • uh... I see a head and shoulders pattern in the last 7 months... once it hits the neck line again (around 26 ish)... it will start dipping

 
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