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Facebook, Inc. (FB) Message Board

  • stockineer stockineer Mar 23, 2013 11:38 PM Flag

    FACEBOOK TECHNICALS

    FB is currently in a broadening wedge pattern. It is not a cup and handle nor an inverse head and shoulders as I hear from time to time. Besides the fact that it's trending down, it is oftentimes a bullish pattern especially since the volume is trending down with the price. So it's not a lot of fun if you own the stock. At any rate, there's some nice technical info that you should take a look at. The price touched the lower trendline (and the 200MA) on Thursday and then put up an inside bar the next day which is often a reversal pattern. To boot, the upper trendline is right there which would be an upward breakout potentially to the upper trendline of the broadening pattern ($28ish)...and who knows, a breakout from there. Be cautious of a partial rise because this thing could break low as well. Just keep an eye on the critical levels and keep your stop losses set. It's hard to describe in words, but as usual I've put up the charts and analysis on STOCKINEER just like I have in the past but I'm posting the summary here for you guys. Long or short, good luck and trade wisely.

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    • The gap has now closed and the price is sitting right on the breakout level. I've posted the updated chart which shows RSI and OBV indicators sitting on their support levels. So we have a few indications that we are at support. A downward close tomorrow would break several support levels, and technically speaking, trigger a sell...perhaps it really was a false breakout. Tomorrow will be telling. It is unfortunate for the price to show so much weakness on highly positive market days. However, one could argue that the price is simply retesting the breakout which happens about 50% of the time. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

    • $29 close will be very bullish.

    • Warren Buffett opened a twitter account. I wonder if he will reach as many followers as Lady Gaga.

    • We finally have a situation where investor can decide to go long on FB. We made some nice position trades, similar to how we traded AAPL, but now there's a chance to breakout of the trading phase and hopefully into a trending phase. Why now? Well, the indicators are looking very positive suggesting a breakout. In fact, On Balance Volume (OBV) has already broken out. Since volume leads price we can expect an upward breakout soon, if not tomorrow. Facebook announces earnings tomorrow which is always an unknown because it can do crazy things to the price so keep that in mind.

      I posted the updated chart, discussion and price target on Stockineer. Good luck guys....this market is getting out of hand. Let's hope we can keep profiting before the cow stops giving milk.

    • Today was the confirmation of a small head and shoulders pattern. The neckline was $26.40 and we've been watching it on Stockineer for a few days. The interesting part is it is really part of a bigger head and shoulders pattern. The pattern today that broke is actually the entire right shoulder of the larger head and shoulders pattern since November...really, it's a complex head and shoulders. If you can't see it, I've posted and update as well as the charts as usual. Good luck guys, but if you are long be careful of the larger pattern breaking down because it gives a price target of $18. The smaller pattern that broke down today gives a price target of $24.80...which is the neckline of the larger pattern...you can see how this could cause a cascading event.

      • 1 Reply to stockineer
      • Good day for longs, FB broke back above the neckline of the H&S pattern that caused a pretty quick decent. The price is still trading in a descending wedge, but this looks like it could be a partial rise...or where the price does not fall to the lower trendline as it had several times before. This often results in an upward breakout. So keep an eye on the upper trendline...it's drawn on Stockineer so you know what to look for. Still waiting for confirmation as to which way price is going to trend. We'll have a good clue one price exits this pattern.

    • There was a price breakout today. It was a suspicious drop this morning to take out the stop losses lined up at $25. The max price today stopped at the previous low of the previous trough. The action actually came on relatively higher volume, but that's not saying a whole lot since volume has been vanishing. I posted an update and the charts if you are interested.

    • Could there be institutional buying since it dropped below it's 200DMA?

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • It is time to buy FB now, regardless what happened last week. Great social company!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I'm still convinced FB will move closer to $25 than to $26. I've changed my buy in limit to $25.31. But after reading all the posts I get the feeling there is currently no hurry to buy FB. I wonder if they'll get a bump when online gaming starts in earnest...

    • I see a falling wedge for all of Feb and Mar. Is that time frame too short? Using that pattern, we should go to 27.15 in 2 days and drop back down to 24.75 within 1-2 weeks after that.

      At that point we either keep the trend of the wedge down to max low of 24 in 2-3 weeks....waiting for a breakout above the trend line at any time.

      For the falling wedge use 32.51 - 28.67 for the top trend line and use 26.34 - 25.56 for the bottom trend line.

      The thing that's really concerning me technically is that the gap down in the mid-24's as well as the bottom of the falling wedge is over a $1 below the 200-ma of 25.44. In terms of "bouncing off 200-ma, a small dip below it doesn't really constitute a break of that support level, or does it?

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

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