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Facebook, Inc. (FB) Message Board

  • investora2z investora2z Jun 15, 2013 8:11 AM Flag

    No chance of strong revival any time soon

    It seems to get comfortable around $22 and dizzy around $28. After paying $38 for the stock, that is an expensive price discovery. The management still believes that the company is on the right track and is working on strategies to make the display based ads more useful on mobile devices. That remains the main hope for future growth in revenues. In any case, the fundamentals will take a lot of time to catch up, so the stock may not blast away any time soon. As the fundamentals improve, the stock may take out the hurdles, but even in the best case scenario, it is not going to happen in a few months. Currently, most analysts prefer other stocks to Facebook. An article on insidermonkey suggested various possible strategies for Facebook to increase revenues. Other companies are looking at segments like online gaming / skill based games / wagering etc. for better growth. Yahoo & Comcast have increased investment in this segment and even smaller players like MGT Capital Investment (MGT) are attempting to increase presence in the arena. FB has remained in a range and looking a little more stable than what it was a few weeks ago. However, it is yet to test higher levels to give any clear signal. Thus a range bound movement between $21 and $25 is more likely. Considering the low level of confidence amongst investors, this is a good enough scenario. The shorts increased on May 31, and the stock price has declined slightly from that date. Since this data is always old, it is not perfectly indicative of the current position. Still it is able to indicate that the sentiments remain largely bearish. There was a news that Facebook has invited the press for coffee to share a big idea about a new product next week. It will be interesting to see what's been cooking. Or maybe, it is just another gimmick..

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    • It's a trading stock in 2013. And it's 80% likely that $23 is the current floor now. Prior psychological floor was $18. Prior H&S pattern was extended, and then sell in May took over.

      After the shareholders mtg there is NO DOUBT that this company could care less about being publicly traded. They feel that it took them 9 years to get here, and that it could take another 5 years to get to $50 a share, if ever.

      This is now a speculating stock, no more, no less, as there is no accountability or shareholder sensitivity. The only issue is the short term floor. This is set by Zuck. He says that the stock will go up from here, and he said the floor was $18 before. I think he feels that if the stock is at $30 in a year he is being successful.

      For those who say that the stock will crash down to $19, the odds are very small. Zuck is running a privately held company in his mind. ALL he cares about now is hiring smart coders. If he is publicly shown to be a liar - when he said to double down at $18 - he loses ability to recruit. That's all he likely cares about. He probably feels safe with a 25% premium to $23 as he suggested to shareholders at the disastrous mtg.

      Hate the hubris, the company, the leadership, the indifferent BOD. This is everything that is wrong with society, humanity and wall street. Still at $23, this is a pretty good speculative buy. I'm getting out asap, but if you want to gamble, there's little down side at this point. Zuck won't let the price fall back to $18. He'd be called out as a liar, on top of all the other things he's called. As for Sandberg, she'd be fired in any other company.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

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