fb is not about today, it is about tomorrow. fb is still a raw,young start up, a company with traffic like no other, a company that is just discovering itself, a company that not uncovered a way to monetize this near immeasurable traffic.
those that are promoting an immediate run are speculators, but no greater speculators than those that project a near term fall. fb has a potential like no other stock you might buy --- but young inexperienced leaders make more mistakes. fb is worth a position in any portfolio, but the move may not come next month or 6 months or at all---- however, if its traffic is sustained fb will be worth hundreds a share in a few years.
Two signals to watch
1. Legal expenses- Not only in what direction they are trending, but what specific actions are Facebook's
outside legal council involved in and a guesstimate on the period of time said work may continue.
2. Ms Zuck Happy wife happy life. If Ms Zuck in unhappy rest assured THE ZUCK IS AS WELL. This could
well prove to be a distraction for Zuck in his running of this business.
Regarding the Zuck's senior executives, Sandberg is actively engaged in analysis of glass ceilings
encountered by female executives, Ebersman 's options keep him engaged ( perhaps Canine Cunning has consulted Ebersman in this endeavor dealing with Canine would indeed be a time consuming process) and Schroepfer keeps himself busy in various cultural issues in the engineering department.
Vote of confidence in this company ???????????????? I still stand behind my position that:
FACEBOOK REMAINS FAR FAR WORSE THAN A STRONG SELL !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Today, fb subscriptions are already saturated, and this is valued as a growth company. Tomorrow does not look good for fb, even if they make better margins from their existing base.
The amount of traffic is meaningless if you cannot monetize it. It's all about advertising. Unfortunately for Facebook, the environment is not good for ads. I don't know anyone that goes to Facebook to buy a product or service. They all use search engines.
You start out with a decent thesis to wait for value in FB. You end with it being worth a hundreds of dollars in a few years. That statement is an insane amount. 40 or 50 in few years would be a reasonable amount to follow your conviction but even with that there would be risk.
Let's look at a pps of hundreds. At a pps of a 200, that would put it at 1-1/2 times AAPL who makes 45 billion income after taxes, after depreciation, after everything. At a pps of 300+, well that is beyond any reasonable measure of what FB could be.
It would take FB over a decade at current growth rates of revenue (assuming they their spending rate abates) to match where GOOG is right now. At a pps of 100, that would put FB at the same cap as GOOG.
FB is not a new company in fact as far as internet companies are concerned they are ancient. FB came out of its ipo among the highest valued companies in the world. This stole a lot of potential share growth. If FB ipod at a cap of 5 billion, it would be a different story.
I do think FB can grow but at the same time there is plenty of future risk and it eminates from things we don't know or can't foresee. For FB to be at hundreds in a few years, is statistically astronomical odds. Even a hundred in a decade, is hard to achieve.
Facebook is getting "long-in-the-tooth". I see more people leaving Facebook because, first and foremost they are tired of it ... and the disadvantages are becoming much greater than the benefits.
Immesuarable traffic? What they heck are you talking about? They can measure it to the bit of information moved, stolen and sold.
OMG! Yer RIGHT! Sheryl Sandbergman (COO) and that CFO guy, and those two big honchos that mysteriously resigned, and most of the execs have/ are selling "Like there is not Tomorrow!" OMG!
Mr. "Like No Tomorrow" should send this topic to the board of governers--to let them know how FOOLISH their (pennywise) insider sales are!