FB is yesterday. Advertisers cannot achieve much more than "awareness" and this is no old trope, It is a fact. Ask any marketing director and he/she will say it is sort of important to be on FB but results rarely come close to expectation. So--FB will remain relevant to some audiences but as I, and others, are discovering, there are better targeted social sites and while I will continue to advise my clients to spend a few dollars on FB, it will not remain a consideration for much longer.
By the way, I have written this before, but my university students use FB less and less. This is a small indicator, but should not be dismissed
I don't know the answer to your question--but my students seem to be spending a lot more time on Tumblr and there has been a surprising move--though a seemingly gradual one--to Google +. Again, I have no idea of this is representative overall. But, over the years, I have come to trust my students as a barometer of trends in the online world. Hopefully, a a few studies or consensus reports will come our way soon. For now, FB is still the Yellow Pages of the digital world--many advertisers feel the need to be there (that's good for investors, obviously). I am also starting to see evidence that it is not so much where you place the ad or even the frequency, but the level of "involvement' and recall created on that "first" viewing. "Stickiness" also seems to be a telling statistic. Still--I don't know of any recent reports to confirm this.
I’ve heard it all before, the PE arguments etc about Amazon in the early days “they don't own anything" was the mantra of the day, the same with so many companies that just kept innovating, netflix was another, "why pay for movies?" It's all about the innovation and knowing how to own the future, I think Facebook will become so much more than it is today and long term we will look back and say “I could have owned that stock when it was ten times cheaper”
Yes--you may be right. That's the nature of "risk"--right? Still, I am only speaking from my experience. And, over the last three years, it has been disappointing. However, I am not prepared to counsel ANYBODY to walk away from FB as a "promotional" expenditure. Let's watch sites like Tumbler, Reddit, Instagram and , most important, You Tube. This latter site is the most exciting and durable and the one to burst all segment and target limitations. Google, in my opinion, really has the long-term edge here. I say FB is "yesterday" because as an advertiser's choice, it seems to be settling into a narrow hollow. Advertisers are willing to run multiple advertising platforms, of course, but who doesn't love a category killer like television? YouTube could be the one.
You make a lot of good points Marvin. You're targeting the primary source of growth and income to what has become a cult following on a stock most bought at a higher price. So it takes a lot of nuts to get on here and try to address the fundamentals of a free service. Then you have trendy investors who play the momentum in FB and don't care about valuations or fundamentals ( Like Me ) .
This was a big number for FB as advertisers have stepped up and tried to use the eye balls of the one Billion users. Smart investors took most of their position off the table on the recent surprise rally or short cover, I'm not sure which. Now you'll get the investors who sold long looking for weakness to come back and build a profitable short position. As most don't think FB will hold current levels based on valuation alone.
Valuations have their place in the market. FB has a market cap somewhere near Mars and a P/E few can even try to figure out. A company that issues 2.4 Billion shares in the first year or so of trading worries me. FB has a market cap of $80 Billion plus. Earnings of 5 cents? Again 5 pennies? Or one Nickel and investors want to have a ticker tape parade through NYC.
Trying to discuss the demographic make up of FB users to a cult following will get a lot of people mad. Will the viewers become active buyers of their products? Well that would be a big NO! Some will argue that a percentage of them may buy something, but what percentage? Once the Million or so advertisers find out that their advertisement dollars would be well spent anywhere but here they'll pull the plug, again. I'm looking forward to a recent study showing where dollars spent on FB advertising equals buyers at the store. Then I'll be a believer. At that time who knows where the stock will be then?
Of course, I agree with you Pete. We all could use some good, predictive studies on this subject. There are a number of articles that serve as consensus reports, but strangely, there are not any large scale, predictive studies that I know of. It may be that we are STILL too early in the game for this (I don't really believe that, but some might).
If you don't get it - you don't get it. FB targets ads better than television, radio, and any other advertising medium - that's why they are knocking the socks off competitors - no one can do it better - and FB usership around the world is growing and growing - forget about your college kids - to millions around the world - Facebook is the Internet. Think bigger .. you may get it yet.
You are right about the targeting, That is not the focus of my concern. I have consulted for about 35 companies over the past 25 years, and have advised and bought, as agent of record, more than $40mm of advertising media. In the last 3 years, I have consulted for 9 companies and have advised (I did not place the media in these cases) about $3.5mm of media buys. While it is always difficult to track our TV and radio (again, you are absolutely right about this), we have been able to track all of our targeted and retargeted Facebook ads--the result have been dismal. My clients have insisted on those placements and, candidly, I have agreed on the retargeted ads and have worked with VOCUS and Commission Junction to assure all analytics. We have placed pixels all over multitracking FB ads and I am telling you, even with correctly targeted audiences, the sales have been terrible. We have achieved greater awareness and this may actually create some retail sales but the online sales have been just pathetic. I have many consultant friends in the USA and Europe--they all complain of the same thing. So--
I am not attempting to affect FB equity value (as if I could!!)--I am just telling you about my experience and the experience of others. My clients are either dropping FB or cutting their budgets for it and we are moving to other social sites.
I wish everyone well--including Zuckerberg and his entire supply chain, I WANT to see American companies kick "derriere" and am rooting for FB. But, seriously, if my client advertisers cannot achieve what they REALLY want--online sales results--then I must conclude that, at least for now, FB is "yesterday."
Indeed he did! Can you figure out which one he is from the list below?
There are three types of bashers:: Advanced, Intermediate and Beginner. An Advanced level
basher (also known as a Silver Tongued Devil) would spread false or misleading information about the company. They would deal in facts, countering every longs post with articles,news reports and opinion surveys that gave a negative impression about the company.
An Intermediate-level basher (also known as a Serpent) would try to weasel their way into the confidence of longs and create doubt using rumor or innuendo.
Finally, a Beginner-level basher (also known as a Pitchfork) would attempt to create confusion in the room by distracting other posters with satire, name calling and pointless arguments. The idea was to make sure no serious discussion of the
stock could take place. A Pitchfork was usually a basher, but not always. Sometimes, he is a hypster
Pitchforks create the illusion of an argument going on.
people should only use face book for the deals not actually for anything else personal.
main reason is that facebook spies on you anyway.
google does as well but we know and can still remain relatively hidden if we want to.
if you do use facebook make sure to use FAKE NAMES and info to do anything social or private.
or real names only if you are doing it for a good deal and they need real names.
p.s. people need to get a clue about their privacy being compromised everyone in IT knows this is a fact.