1. 1.15 billion monthly active users expanding at 40-50 million PER QUARTER. Where will it peak? 2 billion is a slam dunk in a few years, Conservatively, if revenue per user is static, total revenue would grow by 67% based on this metric alone, or almost $5 billion.
2. FB is only scratching the surface on mobile ad revenue. A 50% increase in revenue from this source in the next few years (conservative) would increase FB total revenue by about 18%, or $1.3 billion. THIS IS ULTRA CONSERVATIVE CONSIDERING THEY ARE MOVING TO LUCRATIVE VIDEO ADS and more and more folks in developing countries are getting smart phones and tablets.
3. Instagram? What's the revenue potential? $1 billion?
4. I have total confidence that FB will find other ways to monetize the base. They have all the time in the world to figure it out with no real competition.
And what if FB charged for the right to have an ad free experience? Let's say they charged $4 a month, and 15% of subs signed up. That's more than $8 billion in annual revenue. The options are endless, and these guys are smart.