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Facebook, Inc. (FB) Message Board

  • slider5x5 slider5x5 Aug 25, 2013 1:18 PM Flag

    MATH CHECK b4 U BUY or SELL - 3RD Q REVENUES HAVE TO AT LEAST BEAT $1.95 BILLION

    and EPS nonGAAP have to at least handily beat 20.4 cents and EPS GAAP of at least 14 cents. This is what is needed from last quarter (Q2) results to stay on track for at least the expectation of a 30% growth rate which is what is reported by Yahoo finance analyst earnings estimates is the 5 year est. growth rate. We already know the analysts are sandbagging 3rd quarter #s with Revenues light @ 1.88B and nongaap eps @ 18 cents. TO check the numbers yourself divide 30% growth rate by 4 the result is 7.5% which is the amount each of the stats have to grow Qtr over Qtr to achieve expectations.

    So now with the math done it really doesn't matter what the analyst sandbagged numbers are. We can judge whether the 30% growth is real or not. Quarter over Quarter going forward. The Year over Year numbers are a bogus comparison since the comp year was a fixit year.

    Also keep in mind that Mobil will have to pull weight going forward - it can no longer show 70 to 90% of Mobil access with less than the same % for revenue and eps participation.

    Expectations are great so the numbers going forward should be also. The Ad model works until saturation is reached and results no longer live up to the click thru hype test results being sold. It is understood that what is important is the opportunity to Advertise in front of a large base however results or actual sales as a result of ad dollars spent matter. Prove it. FB still needs something else to monetize the user base #s which still needs to be audited and maybe overstates by at least 50% with fake accounts in order to go beyond the fantasy world of Advertising . Seems like all attempts to monetize beyond ads so far have failed from Gifts to Fakebook Home. Wasn't there a Fakebook phone calling home from HTC with no answer. I'm just sayin'.

    Hype is one thing real is another - going forward real comps matter Qtr over Qtr.

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