(slider here: I was surprised FB actually gave guidance and if you read into it don't expect same growth going forward. While everyone was screaming teens I was saying there was a much more important point to glean. Dan Niles in his discussion w/ Maria B. outlines the issue): Dan Niles interview - FB bull sells entire stake Thu 31 Oct 13 | 04:14 PM ET: ...biggest issue was, they said, look, you know, over a year ago we started this thing called sponsored news feeds where we're showing ads on your mobile devices. we've been increasing the number of ads we're showing to customers over this period of time. going forward, don't expect that to really increase from these levels. that's one of the three ways you can, you know, drive revenue growth. you increase the number of users or you increase the number of ads you're showing them. or you increase the price you can charge. well, users is slowing down. number of ads probably is pretty consistent. so now all you've really got left is the pricing lever to pull. that makes it a lot tougher from here with the stock having really doubled in three months.
Slider here again: I also thought as I pointed out if you comp, the 2nd Q vs 3rd Q conf. calls Sandberg in the Q2 CC was making all this noise about ROI which implies conversions and actual sales as a direct result of FB ads - well flip to Q3 CC you heard none of that - you heard some obscure study done by Kenshoo referenced on flaky ad impressionst. Huge distinction and ties back to the Post I made "THREADING THE NEEDLE - Brands always demand metrics - FACEBOOKS ACHILLES HEEL" How Long before Advertisers wake up to the fact that Ads on FB are useless. I say sooner than most think.
You can look back on CNBC video for This is Facebook’s problem Talking Numbers – Tue, Oct 29, 2013 3:46 PM EDT - The TA guy in that video said look for about a 20% decline.
waikikigigi run the numbers look at the 2nd derivative growth - definitely slowing actually I am trying to balance out the misinformation of 100/shr 200/shr, well you know it is actually goog in disguise dufustalk - bagholding potential is great if you ignore the facts.
Sorry Slider..... once again, you are only reading into the negative and forgetting most of the positive. It's your choice, but for those of us who are on board for the long term, you may sell now, and buy back later. If ONLY most of us would HOLD, the price would not be dropping - ugh - all of the knowledge and stats are out there for the picking and for those who want to continue to swallow the negative, versus the positive, it is dangerous, and combined, all of it may sink this beautiful boat!
slider5x5 bud... right on the money there. After booking solid profits on the dive from 55 to 47, I went to sidelines here on ST basis, just to give it some chance to percolate up again a bit [dead cat bounce], and then slam-it once again, after all 4 dynamics variables fall in place. I'm thinking that state may be reached max around 53.25 (or in extreme market euphoria: 54 max in this go]. Then looking at all those variables, I'm planning to slam it once more for big moola bookings. [3X the normal pressure this time]. What are your plans in this direction?
the comp is always expectation vs reality. FB management tamping down expectations on CC. TSLA down over 20 AH on missed expectation going forward. Ad ROI and conversions are relevant that is reality. Not Sorry just real.
It's only natural to do comparisons with how other issues are doing, especially one as outstanding as TSLA. How that stock has maintained a PPS while everyone sorts out how important a car fire is - well, it's practically a non issue for the world. So how long before advertisers wake up is really really really more of a non issue. FB will climb. Like it or not. (Sorry.)
Niles bid is no where near the current price otherwise he would be back in. Ergo from Niles perspective it is still overpriced at current levels. See the TA guy's symmetrical triangle for pricing. The reasons Niles sited were confirmed in FB forward look and are indisputable. Too bad if you can't hold two thoughts at the same time murc229 and others with the same parochial viewpoint.
Guidance going forward was not good - biggest issue going forward, don't expect ad growth to really increase from these levels - that's one of the three ways you can, you know, drive revenue growth.
you increase the number of users or you increase the number of ads you're showing them. or you increase the price you can charge. well, users is slowing down. number of ads probably is pretty consistent. so now all you've really got left is the pricing lever to pull. that makes it a lot tougher from here with the stock having really doubled in three months.
Slider - sorry to have to contradict you, but world-wide user-ship is GROWING, NOT SLOWING, even though the PR guy had to open his big mouth up about slowing TEENS in the USA, as if that brings in millions like the adults around the globe!!! LOL!