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Facebook, Inc. (FB) Message Board

  • slider5x5 slider5x5 Nov 2, 2013 8:42 PM Flag

    Dan Niles - Important Point coupled with Technical Analysis Symetrical Wedge Pattern

    (slider here: I was surprised FB actually gave guidance and if you read into it don't expect same growth going forward. While everyone was screaming teens I was saying there was a much more important point to glean. Dan Niles in his discussion w/ Maria B. outlines the issue): Dan Niles interview - FB bull sells entire stake Thu 31 Oct 13 | 04:14 PM ET: ...biggest issue was, they said, look, you know, over a year ago we started this thing called sponsored news feeds where we're showing ads on your mobile devices. we've been increasing the number of ads we're showing to customers over this period of time. going forward, don't expect that to really increase from these levels. that's one of the three ways you can, you know, drive revenue growth. you increase the number of users or you increase the number of ads you're showing them. or you increase the price you can charge. well, users is slowing down. number of ads probably is pretty consistent. so now all you've really got left is the pricing lever to pull. that makes it a lot tougher from here with the stock having really doubled in three months.

    Slider here again: I also thought as I pointed out if you comp, the 2nd Q vs 3rd Q conf. calls Sandberg in the Q2 CC was making all this noise about ROI which implies conversions and actual sales as a direct result of FB ads - well flip to Q3 CC you heard none of that - you heard some obscure study done by Kenshoo referenced on flaky ad impressionst. Huge distinction and ties back to the Post I made "THREADING THE NEEDLE - Brands always demand metrics - FACEBOOKS ACHILLES HEEL" How Long before Advertisers wake up to the fact that Ads on FB are useless. I say sooner than most think.

    You can look back on CNBC video for This is Facebook’s problem Talking Numbers – Tue, Oct 29, 2013 3:46 PM EDT - The TA guy in that video said look for about a 20% decline.

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