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HYTHIAM INC Message Board

  • robert_wts robert_wts Jan 4, 2007 11:27 AM Flag

    Anaylst coverage

    Is it just me, or does it seem there expectations are too high for a co.this young? Feedback appreciated.

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    • Most biotechs and speculative stocks require an
      investor to look ahead farther than a single year.
      This company has lots of, (NO, tremendous) potential,
      given how dreadful and how widespread are the addictions
      it adreses. With more trial-successes and publicity, its
      drugs with take off ballistically. The potential is
      certainly there for the stocks to quadruple a year after
      it hits the jackpot and has its lead drug be the recipient
      of wild. well-earned and enthusiastic praise. What are the
      odds of this happening? I would day 60%. SO if there is a 60% chance for the stocks to quadruple and a 40% chance for the stock to drop back to $2, that translates to a stock
      reaching $32! I am long and quite comfortable with the match!

    • They are losing about $3,000,000/month. Assuming a 50% of sales profit contribution, they will need sales of $72,000,000/yr to break even.

      The sales are now about $4,000,000/yr. They will only have to grow by a factor of 20 to break even.

      Once they are above break even you can do the arithmetic to see what it will take to make the stock $9/share.

      • 1 Reply to shapiro1367
      • Only investors with a high risk tolerance should consider HYTM. It is analogous to a mid to late stage biotech co. Patents helps and the preponderance of data show the treatment is exceptionally effective, particularly considering the lack of effective alternative treatments.

        That said, your analysis is meaningless. Companies spend money to make money. There is a huge opportunity here. Addiction is a complicated and seemlingly hopeless problem for millions of people... Assuming the BCBS results in NJ and now NY mimic the results of third party testers/Drug courts, HYTM will likely be a billion company in short order, regardless of near-term profitability.

    • I would agree with the statement that expectations are too high as of yet for this budding company/ industry, but take it all with stride. This is an inconsistant company with plenty of room to grow if everything continues to work out for it. I was in early but then sold my shares as I grew uncomfortable with the high risk attached to small cap, infant companies. I would advise to watch hythiam closely over the next few months with a hightened attention to stock price and press releases.