I would agree with the statement that expectations are too high as of yet for this budding company/ industry, but take it all with stride. This is an inconsistant company with plenty of room to grow if everything continues to work out for it. I was in early but then sold my shares as I grew uncomfortable with the high risk attached to small cap, infant companies. I would advise to watch hythiam closely over the next few months with a hightened attention to stock price and press releases.
Only investors with a high risk tolerance should consider HYTM. It is analogous to a mid to late stage biotech co. Patents helps and the preponderance of data show the treatment is exceptionally effective, particularly considering the lack of effective alternative treatments.
That said, your analysis is meaningless. Companies spend money to make money. There is a huge opportunity here. Addiction is a complicated and seemlingly hopeless problem for millions of people... Assuming the BCBS results in NJ and now NY mimic the results of third party testers/Drug courts, HYTM will likely be a billion company in short order, regardless of near-term profitability.
Most biotechs and speculative stocks require an investor to look ahead farther than a single year. This company has lots of, (NO, tremendous) potential, given how dreadful and how widespread are the addictions it adreses. With more trial-successes and publicity, its drugs with take off ballistically. The potential is certainly there for the stocks to quadruple a year after it hits the jackpot and has its lead drug be the recipient of wild. well-earned and enthusiastic praise. What are the odds of this happening? I would day 60%. SO if there is a 60% chance for the stocks to quadruple and a 40% chance for the stock to drop back to $2, that translates to a stock reaching $32! I am long and quite comfortable with the match!