Harry has posted a Charts of the Day video on NTI at TheTechTrader site noting: Northern Tier Energy LP (NTI) continues to be on the short list. It was in a beautiful rising channel until March when it rolled over, formed a wedge, consolidated, broke down and tested support, bounced back to touch resistance, broke down, popped, formed a mini-wedge, broke down again, and that was followed by a much larger wedge. Technicals look lousy and have been. It looks like this stock has lower levels to go. Obviously, it could stop at 26, or so, but if it does go lower, look for something around the 19-20 zone.
That article by Mr. Boxer was shown on the internet on 5/22/13 one day after the stock went ex-dividend and it closed on 5/22/13 @ 25.20. The stock hit 25.15 yesterday and has been in an up trend the last week or so. I will continue to hold this stock not only for the appreciation in price but also for the huge dividend it pays out every quarter.
I own this stock and the only reason it has gone down a little in the last month or so is because oil prices have gone up and the crack spread has narrowed for all refiners. Nothing else has changed fundamentally for this company.
That's hardly a little reason. It's the most important thing for refiners.
Without considering factors specific to NTI, the situation for refiners is pretty bearish right now.
US oil prices have been rising to match world prices (Brent) and due to the steep backwardation WTI has been in, the incentive is to not store oil but get it out to the refiners. Thus storage has been plunging for 3 weeks and we have a growing gasoline glut (rising at a time of year when gasoline supplies are usually falling) which will keep a lid on gas prices. Yeah, some of the gas will be exported but it seems the rise in gas prices is not keeping pace with rise in oil. Of course, this can all change pretty quickly, but I suspect disappointing earnings for VLO and HFC will be indicative of the sector for Q2 and Q3. Bottom line: as I said before refiners had been in a sweet spot with ability to source discounted US crude and sell gas at world prices. That advantage is rapidly disappearing.