I have never seen a board with so many die hard true believers. Do you guys really think NTI is going to make more money next year than this year? Do you really believe the dividend is going to stay around 5.00 per year when there are no plant turn arounds? Face it, earnings will be less, dividends will be less and pps will be less. I am not saying that this company is not a good company but it has been selling for too much and is correcting. The fact that people on the inside are willing to sell their shares to people on the outside is a good indication of that. Now, if the stock drops to 17.00 (still 30% higher than it's IPO) it may be priced right for a good dividend and pps appreciation. But it has to go down before it goes up and it has to go down to the point where those on the inside are unwilling to sell to those on the outside.
Do you understand how this investment works? Do you understand the refinery world? If not, then you shouldn't be making any comments on this board. Been in refining 35 years. This MLP is based on one refinery running discounted Canadian crude. When you run Canadian crude you purchase it at a huge discount compared to the gulf coast refineries who don't have access to the Canadian crude. If you have a pipeline system or a decent marketing system, you can make a tremendous profit, when you are running. I emphasize decent and when you are running. Midwest margins (IE St Paul refinery) are pretty good and stable, in fact they are usually much better than any PADD in the system. They had a bad 1st and 2nd quarter because of planned maintenance (IE they shutdown). Typically, after a shutdown you will run a higher capacity and things will be more efficient, which means more money. I just bought 3000 shares and I fully anticipate this MLP to do well, most likely above 30 by March 1, 2014! Been in the refining business over 35 years and work for a competitor.
Well pipeline, I hope it works out for you. So far it is doing exactly what I said it would do and that is establish a fair price and build from there. It got too expensive and now it getting cheap. I don't care how long you have been in the oil business. If you overpay for a good company it will take time to recover. Everything you say about sources of cheaper crude is true and this is a good company , but. This is not a 30.00 stock. As of now it is a 20.00 stock and that is a fact. It once was a 30.00 but then reasonable minds took over and repriced it. Do you understand how that works? If not you shouldn't be in the stock market at all. Or the unit market.
A better bet would be that you will lose MOST of your stock price in 5 years and if you think that will be balanced of by the dividends (if they even stay) then you are pretty uninformed to put it politely.
I wonder how accurate your crystal ball is that you have such a good idea of what the next 5 years distributions will look like. Ever heard the saying 'don't count your chickens'?
The last 2 years were not typical of refinery profit margins. Distributions over the last 5 years are likely to be a lot lower than they were the last 1-2 years.
msc, why will earnings and div be less? You make it sound like a fact, so wheres your data? If its just your opinion ok but I'll stick with what management said in the cc unless they start lying to us. oh yeah, a $4 div would be ok with me.