This is a good company and a good investment. It is just that everyone got a little over enthusiastic and ran the price up too high. I do not say this from detailed financial analysis as I am not capable of doing so with this type of company. I believe the business is sound, has certain advantages over other similiar companies and sells a product that will always be needed. HOWEVER, when those who own a bunch of the stuff and are on the inside are willing to sell to those on the outside, at prices significantly less than what has been experienced in the past 6 months in a rising overall stock market, it tells me they think it's priced to high. AND I think they know more about it than I do and quite frankly more than you other guys on the board know as well. I am not trying to be a smart #$%$ but it just makes commom sense to me.
I will be back at a lower price in a few months. Mid to higher teens. GLTA!
When this drops $2 in one day last week, and doesn't go up leading to ex-div date I start to wonder. Don't like the volatility of this. I really don't think the economy is doing as good as they lead you to believe. Exxon is down, but I'd rather be there. More stable.
As usual the shorts are doing a tap dance on longs in August. Most stocks I own were down yesterday, all of which had volume less than half of their normal average. Energy usually gets clocked every August and this year is no exception. In a month we will have yet another miraculous revelation that energy is important, growing rapidly and a solid opportunity for investors. The market no longer trades on reality, it trades on the ability of big players and high frequency traders colluding to manipulate sectors up and down. All in all, pretty disgusting. On a different note the SEC for the first time in a couple of decades seems to be getting aggressive on Wall Street - as is Elizabeth Warren. When some of the big fish start getting jailed and big banks get broken up we may get an honest market again.
Apparently they were forced to sell enough shares that they would drop below a 50% ownership threshold. I didn't like the timing but if they had to they had to. What we have learned is that even with declines in the crack spread, because of proximity to both Balken & Canadian crude, that requires little transportation expense, the crack spreads will continue to be pretty good and the dividend will also. If they stay around $4.50 to $5 per share in earnings they're trading at a 5x multiple. If the multiple rises to the industry average the share price should get up into the high 20's or 7x. Where else do you get a 20% dividend for a 5x-7x pe multiple?