It has been a tremendous stressful 3 months holding this stock trying to get that 20% dividend, and now I only get half not enough to cover the loss on ex date.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
You are typical of impatient investors. The stock based on last quarters distribution is yielding 12%. Hold for 8 years and you'll get ALL your money back. If the share price recovers before then take some profits. It's not hard if you have more maturity than a 5 year old.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
" The stock based on last quarters distribution is yielding 12%. Hold for 8 years and you'll get ALL your money back"
Only if they keep paying the same amount yet the distribution has dropped every quarter so far.
Credit Suisse estimates next 3 distributions to be .68, .34 and .30.
Only a fool would expect a continuous 20% dividend. At todays price the dividend is 13%, and long term it would be remarkable if that continuous. This is an untested stock that will be $30 when it matures. I'm doing some bottom fishing here, lower my average cost.
NTI will rise again--Think about this--They refine Bakken OIl ($40) a barrel. NTI was shut down for 1/3 of the last quarter and will still pay .68 dividend. Projections for the balance of the year are an additional $2 a share dividend. Patience is a virtue-
Really? $40/bbl for Bakken? It's hard to find an exact price, but I find at least one buyer with a list price for North Dakota Sweet (Bakken) at $82.52. Yes, it's decent discount to WTI or Brent, but not the sorts of spectacular numbers we were seeing at the beginning of the year.
The differential on WCS is starting to run back up, and NTI can also run a significant percentage of that, but it's still $80/bbl, up from $60 4th quarter last year.
Heating oil is essentially flat, so no help on the crack spread there. Gasoline is up, but nowhere near enough to offset the increase in feedstock costs.
I'm not saying it's a worthless stock, and I might get back in if it drops another few bucks, but the first few dividends since the IPO were under extremely unusual and unlikely to be repeated conditions.
seems like a bright picture, but then why insiders are selling? A classic pump and dump, 20% dividend is the bait. Learned an expensive lesson, should have listened to my mother, think twice before getting into something too good to be true.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
A lot of people just dont have the stomach for this game.. They dont understand its not always an up trend.. Sometimes you need to be patient, take the dividend ( after all its a very solid payout at a lower tax rate ) and wait... This is not a game for those with a weak stomach..All types of head games and manipulation......NTI is going to be much higher in the next several quarters, but to think that around the ex div date there would not be any pain is naive. Its a solid company in a solid business. Many other refiners have been hit the past several months. Look at the list if you dont believe me......I have made a great deal of wealth in the market......I ignore all the garbage, CNBC, the Analysts, etc.. Your dead right , patience is a virtue! JMHO D