Damage being assessed but this will have no affect on quarter or guidance. Personally, I got a large order filled at $18.03, which I am very happy about. Now just wait. SA article was way off, as usual. WCS and Bakken hitting lows of year daily. Remember, NTI hauls in nice margins as crude prices fall. It is likely crude will fall further. Use this opportunity to lower your basis. My two cents. Ken
Management says otherwise (or do you not believe them?):
"Given the occurrence of these events, the Company is updating operating guidance on throughput for the third quarter of 2013. Original third quarter throughput guidance was expected to be between 90,000 and 95,000 BPD. Updated throughput for third quarter is now expected to range between 78,000 and 81,000 BPD."
Don't forget throughput = distributions.
No impact is too optimistic. In terms of monetary damage NTI is insured thus the impact is limited. However the management can't make an statement regarding the damage and the impact is troublesome. The fire also highlighted the risk of a single refinery. Moving forward the street will assess a lower PE than typical refinery. That said the price is very low and I am tempted to buy some.
There will be an impact relating to repairs, government fines (extortion), etc.. May even be some short term reduction in output but keep the event in its proper perspective. The fire was contained and exterminated within 3 hours, no one was hurt and the remainder of the refinery was not impacted. it could have been a much worse event, up to the total destruction of the refinery, but it wasn't.
if you think the fire will have a significant impact on production and future earnings then you should sell. if you believe, like I do that the impact will be minimal then you should be buying at these low levels. Place your bet my friend. Refinery stocks have been weak and fear is in control. Buy when others are fearful. it is also the end of the month and end of the quarter which usually brings stock prices down.
' I haven't read the article but already agree'! It's always nice to see 'investors' do there own DD. Myself, I too just accept everything posted as facts and blindly follow the herd. Readying articles just too time consuming.