I have gone back and forth on the success of GTA4, and what it may do relative to the TTWO price per share.
In my mind up until today, the problem has been the incredibly lack luster sales of PS3, it in essense had been giving me a glass is half empty mentality. Then, the problem that TTWO is not officially doing the port for the Wii, which ironically, seems to be the console that will own, the first half of this console cycle, and arguably maybe even the second half as well. And Sony has been unwilling to fix the problem by cutting the price of PS3.
Sony may have already lost the battle, but, a cut before this coming Xmas season is virtually guaranteed, IMO. They have to save face to some extent, they can not afford to be irrelevant in this cycle.
Furthermore, I think TTWO has a real opportunity to capitalize on Sony's debacle by striking a deal to bundle GTA4 with the PS3 (in addition to the console price cut). Sony now needs third party developers more than they need Sony.
That said, I continue to think that sales in excess of 3M during the Holidays will be tough.
I call BS. It is not possible for you or your imaginary friend to come up with a dollar amount sony is losing on each console. Why? Because they have intangibles like r&d for the cell, gpu, etc. What they make or lose per unit depends on how many units they sell over its lifetime not just the raw material costs of each unit.
Two weeks huh? Do you have june puts? Sounds like it. There will likely be a battle over ttwo sometime in the next 14 trading sessions. There have never been this many puts and max pain is between 22.50 and 25.
Sony doesn't have cutting a dime off pricetag into this year. again i was told by insider that Sony is losing $260 off each console and they just started a month ago to get cheaper supplies but, it still around $220 or so right now. their goal by yearend is to lose less on each console at same price they are selling now. this will lose less money for division and boost profits by yearend. aqll this other talk about GTA4 and Xbox 360 Sony doesn't really give two shits about its about losing less and overall company earning more next 2 quarters and stock will be higher than now by yearend. they don't think like games do.
now, ATVI will shit a turd Thursday niight on guidance they will guide to less revenue than they will report now that is a given. estimates still have $340m next quarter off $308m this quarter thats a horrible mistake it should be $250m next quarter off $300m this quarter and it will still disappoint. truth is last quarter as industry was a bit stronger than expected and 3 weeks ago the industry shit the bed and its slowing down next 2 months or so a lot more than people think now. i don't see anybody spending $60 for new game till Madden comes out and thats mid-August. its like watching tumbleweed in game stores now you're lucky if there is anybody in the store at all usually the kid that works there is jerking off in the back room. ATVI will go down over 10% friday morning and TTWO in 2 weeks will go down more than that next morning because it will be learned then that TTWO don't have snowball chance in hell to breakeven this fiscal year they will be lucky if they only lose .30 cents for this fiscal year. long term looks very promising but if you already hold now you should save yourself a lot of money and sell tomorrow morning when the bell rings and buyback a month from now and you'll have a solid base for stock to go up then and not get your ass shot off in the meantime. just my opinion, if i were you i'd sell and buyback a month from now you'll increase your share count significantly and not get a cumface at the same time.
I think Sony is totally in a no-win situation with the PS3 . . . it has cemented a third place position unless they pull a miracle.
I think MSFT does recognize the Wii as a real threat and will eventually cut prices even with SOny out of the picture. But the price cut may not occur until November . . . after the've secured full price 360 sales to all the rabid Halo & GTA fans.