Dan, I'm a holder of both NTDOY and TTWO, and would love to know what you're thinking. If you don't want to post here, send me your thoughts at gazerker at yahoo dot com.
I've bought NTDOY four times since November, averaging out at $33.60 at the moment. I'm considering committing more, based on some of my own assumptions and speculations. Sadly, there is no NTDOY board here though. I'm already pretty steep in NTDOY, but i simply don't see the downside...not for a while, anyway. Hardware is flying off the shelf, original IP is flooding in and selling, and the big publishers are all focusing their top talent on exploiting the wii/ds install base. If you have some other reason than that to jump in even deeper, i'd love to hear it.
As for TTWO, for me it's a relatively short term play (1 year or so, unless there's a big event, like a sale). Game companies, like movie studios, are dependent on their content releases...TTWO has some of the biggest IP in the industry on the horizon. The slimming down (NY) and Manhunt PR stunt (my words), were just the extra shove i needed to jump in. I'm not all that heavily invested here, relative to my overall portfolio, but as a gamer, i tend to pay attention to this industry with much more excitement than say, chips or healthcare stocks.
Anyway...that's officially a ramble. Damn you, redbull! ...going to the gym now. Looking forward to hearing your thoughts on NTDOY.
I've been watching NTDOY since they revealed the wiimote mechanic in 2005, and that got me excited. But it was the launch of the DS Lite which sealed it for me. I was convinced that the Lite would crush the PSP, providing solid income until the Wii started selling. I couldn't see any downside, so I invested 70% of my funds into NTDOY in April/May 2006, at $17.6 and $21. I've sold most along the way, sadly, but still have a core holding. My initial target was $35 for the Wii launch and $60 if the Wii won this generation. I am, however, nervous about the overall market.
I think Nintendo might do a deal with Skype at some stage, and use the always-on capability of the Wii, so the console can receive calls 24/7.
I also think that as soon as sales start to slow (2009?) Nintendo will announce the Wii2. I think they'll be the first to release a next-gen console, beating MS and Sony by a couple of years. Wii2 will have the same kind of power as a 360. I also think that the Wii's success will make Sony/MS speed up their console release cycle, because they need to release motion-control from the ground up (and no, the sixaxis isn't a satisfactory motion-controlling solution). Any motion-controlling they incorporate now, after their consoles' release, will have limited penetration.
I don't have any TTWO right now, but they seem like a good bet. As does THQI. But they're not Nintendo - probably the safest bet I ever made!