I used to be an investor in t2 many years ago and have retaken a position as i feel there could be significant upside due to the over reaction from GTA and rave reviews of bioshock. Have there been any estimates for sell through on bioshock? Anyone have predictions?
Sales estimates obviously depend on many factors. The game is receiving incredible buzz, almost eclipsing Halo 3 which is just a month away. I don�t recall a single game 360 game generating that type of positive reactions from gamers so far, even Gears of War. The game is going to sell great from the start as pre-orders rankings seem to indicate. As a minimum, I think the games sells around the 3 million mark (360 and PC combined), similar to what Oblivion did, another game with great hype and critical acclaim. The difference between the two is Bioshock caters more to the 360 hardcore than Oblivion being an FPS. Now, if few things fall in place, then upside could be substantial. Halo 3 is going to sell over 2 million copies on day 1, and probably 3 million in the first week. However, if Halo 3 comes out a bit unpolished or less spectacular than gamers are expecting, I think eyes will turn to Bioshock and could split the mindshare with Halo 3 as the must have game this holiday season. In Europe with PC sales very strong in many countries, Bioshock might be the best selling title on the PC.
What�s most important is to figure out is what T2 is expecting it to sell and see if there�s any upside to their estimate! In Q4 last year, they reported $266 million in sales and $14 million net loss ($ 0.20 per share) that included many 1-time items. Last year, other than NBA and NHL, their main release in Q4 was Bully on the PS2. We know that they shipped $25 million worth of Bully in Q4. This year Q4, they�re guiding $275 to $300 million and 0.05 to 0.10 loss per share excluding some items totaling another $0.15. So their expectations for the quarter is an increase of $9 to $34 million of revenues. Loss per share is very similar to last year.
So assuming they ship similar quantities of NBA and NHL (remember those two titles didn�t get PS3 shipments until November or Q1). There�s upside there. Assuming catalog is the similar to last year though you can argue their catalog has been significantly expanded. Assuming distribution is the same as last year though you can argue it should be bigger this year. They shipped Bully and a bunch of smaller PC and compilation titles in Q4. This year, they will ship Bioshock, Table Tennis Wii, Oblivion GOTY and a bunch of smaller titles. So can Bioshock outdo Bully on PS2 ($25 million) and another $34 million projected increase? Can it sell more than $59 million (just over 1 million) in Q4? It looks to me that management is forecasting 1 million shipment in Q4 and maybe another 1 million in Q1. That�s where the upside will come, if they ship 2 million copies in Q4 instead, that�s an extra $50 million and a possible swing from $0.10 in losses to possibly over $0.50 in profits.
The GTA selloff was overdone because it came on the back of major market declines and no one thought TTWO had anything else to substitute for it this holiday season. I don�t believe many of the analysts and gaming pundits thought Bioshock would get such critical acclaim or be a big seller. People are talking about Bioshock in similar tones to how they described GTA3 and how it changed the gaming experience. Not only can Bioshock take the sting off of the GTA delay, but when you consider games like Table Tennis, Bully, and Manhunt 2 might also be on its heels. Throw in MLB Power Pros and discounted APF2K8, and TTWO is going to have a hell of a holiday season. No one is expecting it, no one is going to see it, no one is going to believe it.
"No one is expecting it, no one is going to see it, no one is going to believe it."
What, you being right about TTWO for once? Just a month ago at $20 you were raving about how "things are looking up", and a few months before that you were calling for $1.50 EPS in FY07.
Dizzo, thanks for that info and the article. This would certainly make a PS3 port cheaper and faster to produce. It would make sense that's why they made the change so late in development, anticipating a future port.
Jester, thanks for the sales estimates. I found an old interview that indicates they moved Bioshock development to UE 3 - although it is also heavily modified to achieve the water effects. That might be one of the reasons for the delay after E3.
"AMN: Speaking of the graphics engine, it's running on Unreal 2.5 right?
Ken: No, we've moved to Unreal 3, we've done a lot of modifications on top of it, all the water effects we've added, and we've added a lot of features like water....again we don't build features just to have them, we build them to have an emotional resonance. The AI relationship with the characters is an emotional thing and with the gameplay, the water, we want to make you feel like the ocean is about to drown you, it's drowning Rapture and as you'll see in the demo, water is just coming into this place so we've hired a water programmer and water artist, just for this game, and they're kicking ass and you've never seen water like this."
3m is about what I figured. Pachter put an estimate of 1.4m so thats upside (to his estimates) of 1.6m units.
Really rough calculation, asuming it can contribute on avg $25 unit (since some of those untis will be discounted down the line), thats still 40m before taxes (and I think they have more than enough carryback losses to not make this an issue) to the bottomline. That's over .50/shr...
I think 1.5M-2.5M at full price this year. Pachter's estimate is similar. Despite the great reviews and the hardcore buzz I've yet to see evidence it may hit the mass market enough to match Gears sales, or Halo's. That may come though, so there's potential upside to the estimate.
Thanks Jester. I agree the buzz right now is hardcore, however I think it very may well transfer over to the mass market if it 'plays' as smoothly as the reviews say it does. Are you thinking about a position in Take2 now? I remember you from atvi boards a few years back.
According to www.thesimexchange.com Bioshock now projected to sell just over 3 million units on the 360 alone. At one point last night, it touched 4 million.
Check out the images, reviews and trailers while you're there.
One trick pony? I think not.