Everything looks like it got a metacritic ratings bump today. These are big jumps as of yesterday. I'd like to hear about channel checks in your local areas (Gamestop, Wal Mart, Best Buy, Target, etc). Now is the time to go out and check how this game is actually selling at the stores. I know when I was asking around a month ago, nobody even knew about this game...
#4 Overall UK
#4 Overall Canada
#24 Overall U.S.
#82 Overall Germany
#13 overall France
OK apparently we are talking about two different things. From what I can tell you are looking (I'm guessing, based on the huge numbers) at the size of the overall video game market.
I am looking at the size of the Nintendo DS market, which IMHO is a bit more germane to a Nintendo DS game.
"I'm not sure how you get #3 so confidently as I haven't seen a breakdown by country. And if it is #3 then it is a very distant third."
Okay, not to continue the argument but just to answer your question:
2008 Market Value (2007 in brackets)
USA – £14.89bn (£12.51bn) year-on-year +19%
Japan – £4.55bn (£5.37bn) year-on-year -15%
UK – £4.03bn (£3.40bn) year-on-year +18.5%
And in the first two months of 2009 the UK was actually bigger than Japan.
I'm not sure how you get #3 so confidently as I haven't seen a breakdown by country. And if it is #3 then it is a very distant third.
Perhaps "tiny" is ever slightly too strong a word, but under 10% of the installed base certainly qualifies as small by any definition. I would certainly love to see strong sales in the UK, but I don't think the title will live or die based on those results, so that is why I am not wringing my hands over any comparisons to VCS.
I am aware of GTA sales in Japan which is precisely why I think this Asian influenced story on the most popular gaming platform in the world has the best chance to succeed in Japan of any GTA. That is why I think Japan will make or break this title. We know from the last qtr that T2 has been making serious inroads into Asia and this game should provide a good opportunity to make further progress. If it doesn't then we know something has gone wrong with the marketing, as the game itself is well reviewed.
Given the number of DS owners and the demographics even a modest boost in Japan would more then make up for any weakness in the UK. I love the UK, been there many times, and I think it's a great market for games in general, but for this title, on this platform, I'm significantly more interested in Japan and the US.
Well, #3 in the world doesn't make it "tiny" exactly does it?
However, semantics aside surely you can't ignore the fact that the Japanese have never actually bought GTA (or any other western game for that matter) in any significant numbers?
You can't dismiss the UK numbers as irrelevant - it's GTA's #2 market.
If you want to say that it's only based on launch sales and may not represent lifetime sales then that's a fair point which may be proven right or wrong once we get more numbers in.
But dismissing the UK as a tiny market just because the numbers don't suit the argument is a little bit "group-think" wouldn't you say?
1 week after launch/reviews:
GTA: Chinatown positions changes on Amazon:
UK: #4 to #4
Canada: #4 to #34
U.S.: #24 to #22
Germany: #82 to #100
France: #13 to #1
one more to add:
Gamestop: #20 to #21
I'd say overall the game looks like it has strong legs since it has actually increased in the U.S. and has become a major hit in France.
I expect guidance to be for 1M given how low it was and from my channel checks it is selling out initial shipment within the first week, meaning they will likely ship another million in the quarter.
Well, just to throw in the only real sales data we have it was the #5 selling sku by units (#8 by value).
It sold half the number of units Vice City stories did in its launch.
Personally, I thought that was disappointing given the review scores, the heavy marketing and the heavy discounting at places like Amazon.
It is hardly conclusive given that the real test of a DS title (normally) it its longevity but if you want to look at early indications of how well its doing then I'd say it's disappointing.
Still in the overall top 20 on Amazon, which includes console and periphery sales. It is trackign right with Kill Zone 2, a major seller on the PS3 (and a great game as well). Looks like thsi game is going to have major legs throughout '09 and we should be seeing sequels of this on the DS. This is just more valuable IP to the long list in TTWO's arsenal.
Rising steadily on all Amazon charts. If it just holds this rank for a month, it won't be a question of beating expectations. It will be a question of how much they beat by. Considering it's a high margin title (and they suggested they negotiated better royalty rates), then we're looking at a much better year than is currently expected based on this game's performance.
But we're still a long way away from celebrating and declaring success. We're only a few days into launch.
Rockstar Japan better be hard at work right now on a localization to Japanese.
That is where this game will really shine.
A Nintendo DS depicting bad Chinese criminals? Could they have made a better title for Japan?
Damn, I'm thinking they picked concept of 'Chinatown Wars' with the Japanese market in mind. ;-)