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Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. Message Board

  • rustyambiguous rustyambiguous May 3, 2010 8:30 AM Flag

    RDR vs Mario Galaxy

    RDR, according to Vgchartz.com had roughly 190k in pre-orders in total in the U.S. vs 270k for Mario Galaxy 2. Mario Galaxy 2 though had the $20 Amazon and Walmart pre-order bonuses for well over a month while RDR only had the $10 bonuses. I personally pre-ordered Mario Galaxy 2 a month ago because of the bonus, while I was possibly just going to buy RDR later since the Amazon and Walmart policies were just $10. Last week, the policy got upped to match Mario Galaxy to $20. Now, with the $20 bonus for RDR, it has shot up past Mario Galaxy 2. Mario Galaxy sold roughly 9 million units worldwide when it was launched near the infancy of the Wii. The significance of RDR matching up toe to toe with one of the strongest franchises in gaming I think says enough. How any "analyst" cannot be impressed by the pre-order hype but expects the game to only have legs for possibly only TWO MILLION units looks extremely foolish to me. I think based on the previews, the hype it's generating around the gaming community, and the data we're receiving from retailers worldwide on pre-orders, SALES by the end of Q3 (so long as it rates in the 93+ category) could be 3 million units during that 8-9 week time period for the third quarter.

    If it can SELL 3 million units in about 8-9 weeks, that means it should ship at least 4 million units during the quarter.

    $43 (Usually a retailer takes 15-20% which would drop the price for TTWO to $49.99, but I'll assume some more price drops going forward as the game matures and this does not even factor in higher price point limited edition sales in Europe) * 4 million units shipped = 172 million in sales just for RDR.

    That's in comparison to a 144 million estimate for the entire Q. Add in catalog sales and the quarter can end up being a significant beat for TTWO instead of a loss of .44 on only 144 million in revenue. Of course, the company could adjust some of Bioshock's sales in the Q and take a charge here, but the sales of RDR should more than make up for any of these charges. This is definitely a bullish stance, but I believe it is more realistic at this point than the negative stance that assumes just 2-3 million in lifetime sales.

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