Michael Pachter Predicts Sales Of 8 Million Copies Of BI
Pachter not only predicts 8 million sales during its lifetime but believe the total production and marketing costs to be around 100 million. Claims that its the most interesting he's ever seen/played and scores it a 10/10. From Venture Beat.
Where is Pach getting these numbers?? I usually take what he says with a grain of salt anyways, but 8 MILLION?? Not a chance in hell we get to 8. And not sure who to believe on the game costing 100 million to make. Will Z tell us what they spent to make the game on CC, or do they never talk about that? I think Pach is late to the party or he's predicting high so when it doesn't match his expectations he can create a buying op for his friends. IMO
You beat me to the punch. I just posted this exact thought and hadn't gotten to read your comment yet. He's trying to create an artificial hype that won't get met to let his buddies buy in. Sometimes the market is so crooked. Based on what data is BI gonna sell 8M. It doesn't even have multiplayer, it will get partially cannibalized by used game sales and partially by people waiting on Steam sale. It doesn't have nearly the hype that LA Noire did which is its closest relative in terms of non-multiplayer, story-driven functionality (yes I know the genres are different, but to the story-driven gamer they both have appeal).
The Pach-man cracks me up. He often makes brash predictions with confidence. But they often don't come true and everyone forgets abotu them. I would like to believe this prediction but that sounds a bit huge. Although, I looked at my friends list on Steam and more than twice as many own BI than own Tomb Raider and more than twice as many want BI than Tomb Raider. So BI has really done well. Remember when people were worried that it might bomb due to the people that quit? LOL
I don't know whether to give Pachter a big hug or yell F you at him. I think he is exactly right about the 100 million TOTAL cost of the game, and I also agree with him that BI will do 5 million. I also loved how he gave the game a 10/10 and thought it was "definitely" the game of the year. But 8 million lifetime sales?!?! That's setting the bar really up there and I hope he isn't raising expectations too high. All in all this is good news and makes me feel a bit more reassured. I'm hoping the shares reflect Pachter's opinion tomorrow.
#$%$? I think the game is going to do better than the 4 million estimates. The $100 million cost number sounds pretty reasonable. That would take around 2.5-3 million units to break even. Btw, Rayguy, I've seen you post on the DECK board. That one has been amazing. Can't believe it was trading in the mid 30's when I first picked it up.
Deckers has come back nicely. I always believed that the weather was more responsible for the winter 2011/2012 Uggs sales than the fad story. Funny how the analyst responsible for the huge drop is now calling for $100/sh.
As for TTWO, Pachter is very ambitious with 8 million. If Square Enix claims to have sold 3.6 million Tomb Raider copies in it's first month, and if that number is somewhat accurate, BI should be at 4 million units in that same time period. Plus all copies were sold at full price.