Im not crazy saying GTAV would make 1 billion in revenue here is why
2009 when gta4 was coming out
-GTA4 had a first day sale of 3.6 million copies sold and they generate 310 million dollar in revenue
310/3.6=$86 dollar per copies right?
-During the release of GTA4 there was normal edition and collector edition for 89.99
-Charge company more to make PS3 games and Xbox360 game
Now lets fast forward to today
GTA5 is coming out this tuesday morning and is expecting to break some kind of record
-We have 3 edition this time Normal $60, SE $80 (Most thing are digital which mean more profit) and collectors edition $150.
-We all know Normal edition/Collectors edition in UK amazon are SOLDOUT, meaning we might be able to sell through the 3 million plus copies they have over there.
-In America #1 gaming in the world has unlimited Normal edition which is not sold out yet, SE edition which is all sold out everywhere and Collector edition(only rockstar and gamestop has)Xbox 360 one is sold and PS3 thinking it would sold out soon
-People wants SE edition might have to get it online and we make more money and they will be happen dont have to go out for launch date
-Ebay is selling normal edition over the normal price because people are buying it and selling it to Japanese gamer or gamer that couldnt get a hold of GTA5 yet. If you dont believe go look it up they are bidding over 67 dollar just for the normal edition at ebay
-Gta5 has a PS3 bundle with it and GTA4 dont
-Since it is a dead console which they dont charge as much putting into the PS3 and Xbox fee which more profits for us
Now lets do the math here. Lets
3million(UK)+ 6million(USA, we double that since we are a bigger gamer market)+2 million EU+500k AU=11.5million copies sold for the first week. Add 500k to each day end of the second week sale. We are looking at selling 11.5+3.5=15 million copies in the first 2 weeks.
15million x 86= 1.290 billions dollar
This quarter we esitimate 900+ million forgot what the number was,
Lets say 980 million revenue we have to make. 1290 million + 200 million (catalog games)=1490-980=510 million over the estimate, that is 52%(510/980) over the low ball we did.
Our market value is sitting at 1.54 billion and we are making 1.490 billion this quarter. What this tells me we are very under value here and we can go higher if Z dont Fxxxxxxxx us up.
Then we have Christmas best time to sell game to kid in middle to high school and parent dont care what kind of game they want they just get it for them like that 11 year old kids from France. We also have steam holidays sales also, so my guess for next quarter would be around 800 millions also because we have GTA5, NBA2k14, WWE2k14 and steam sales with amazon matching it.
1.490+.8= 2.290 billion in revenue lets say we only get 30 percent of the over all revenue as a profits. Since we took GTA5 cost the last 5 years making while paying for it. We would add 229x3=687 millions in cash plus what we have 620 million. We have a 1.307 billions sitting in the bank with a debt of 490 million that leave us a positive 817 million cash in hand. If they announce the 10 percent back buy from those cash and we have 90 million share floating. We would still have 727 million in positive cash and 10 percent shares off the market which make our pps higher.
If EA can be a 8 billion dollar company and ATVi 19 billion dollar company why cant TTWO be a 4 billion dollar company with many promising game coming out
4billion/90 million= $44.44 per shares we have.
GTA is not the only game we sells Billions of dollar, we also have other series that sell super well too here are the list
Sharesholder meeting is on Sep 18,2014 one day after GTA5 is out, why in the world would they choose that date. BTW
Shares holder meeting would get Ichan involve because he holds 13% of the company. He is done with Dell buyout and have nothing to do. He might say it is tell to ripe TTWO apart and sell it to the other 2 big gaming company.
When EA offer to buy TTWO there was really much gaming company out there that has the money to buy TTWO besides EA and ATVi. Now we have
SONY making thier own game