In a report published Thursday, Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter reiterated an Outperform rating and $19.00 price target on Take-Two Interactive Software (NASDAQ: TTWO [FREE Stock Trend Analysis]).
In the report, Wedbush noted, “On Wednesday, Take-Two announced record-setting first day retail sales of Grand Theft Auto V that exceeded our bullish expectations. Sell-through for the September 17th release exceeded $800 million worldwide, not including upcoming launches in Brazil and Japan, setting new records for Take-Two and the series. The retail figure translates to roughly $640 million wholesale, or around 12 million units, given higher foreign prices. We modeled Q2 sell-in of 12 million units. First-day sales may be an all-time record. First-day sales exceeded GTA IV sales (roughly $310 million) due in part to a much larger current console installed base, and topped Activision Blizzard's recent Call of Duty games (last year's Black Ops 2 sold over $500 million, while Modern Warfare 3 sold over $400 million in North America and the UK). Given strong initial demand and solid review scores, we believe there could be upside to our estimates for sell-in of 20 million units in FY:14 and 24 million units lifetime. We will not adjust longer-term estimates until we have more data about sell-through in the coming months.”
Take-Two Interactive Software closed on Wednesday at $17.20.
Soo......none of these guys are going to move their estimates?? Instead.....we predicted what we predicted, and even though it looks like these numbers will get smashed....it hasn't sold that yet. So, until we actually have numbers in front of our face we aren't going to move our price targets. NICE!! That might be a little late by the time you actually have the exact numbers in front of you?
For the analysts that have sales figures in the 20+ million range, they don't need to raise estimates until they've received proof that all the sales weren't front loaded and won't fall off a cliff in the 2nd and 3rd weeks. We will need sales of 18+ million in the first month to get some of these guys to raise estimates. If these incredible first day numbers did anything, they set a price floor.
They are missing some pretty easy to see numbers: First off, the sell thru number is not a match to revenue/profits, if you sell more copies earlier the ASP is much hugher and profits are greater, secondly no one will be trading in the game until the at least try GTA Online for awhile, which means no used sales in the first month (every other game has used copies starting to show up after 2-3 days). Lastly, they are ignoring the potential of micro transactions, which I expect we will start getting more info on later next week and will be a nice catalyst going forward.