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Black Diamond, Inc. Message Board

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  • bob_afet bob_afet May 12, 2010 12:16 PM Flag

    I'm holding for higher price--nice buy

    Not exactly true on 0 P/E. There are no earnings until the acquisition goes through. If the acquisition does go through by my calculations if you assume a range of 10-15% margins on 113M Rev (assume 8% growth in 2010 so really 122M Rev) on the business you are trading at 5.7 - 8.9x TEV/EBITDA multiple.

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    • OTOH, if you look at the main mission statement that Clarus has/had on their website about redeployment of the cash and NOL's. It was specifically stated that the target company will have an annual EBITDA of $ 25 million or more.

      Let us then assume that Kanders stayed on the path. Then, let us also assume that annual interest expenses going forward to be about $ 5 million ( that may very well be quite conservative )then let's assume depreciation and amortization is $ 2 million, that will leave us with about $ 18 million in net income subject to taxes. However, since we now have a large NOL position to take advantage of, one can assume that the tax liability is going to be zero for a few years.

      Thus, $ 18 million times a reasonable multiple of 12 to 15 for a brick and mortars manufacturing company that is a leader in its industry, then the market cap should be about $ 18 million x 13.5 ( half way between 12 and 15 ) = $ 243 million. Now, divide that by the 20.4 million shares and we get a potential pps of about 11.91.

      That tells me that once the figures come out we should be trading in the 10 - 12 range. All IMHO, of course.

 
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