Risk of Kander's finding an acquisition is gone and its trading at a lower valuation than at times when it had previously been a shell!
This current price is a joke and I think it is happening for a few reasons.
1. Fixation on the $6 per share price agreed on in the Gregory purchase
2. Major seller clearing out at $6... given the enormous volume yesterday the needle did not move up and down much AT ALL
3. Not enough eyes. Not enough people have been following this... clearly many of us thought it was dirt cheap with the deal search risk out of the way but not enough of us to overtake a major shareholder and then some.
3. Uncertainty on operating metrics
4. Risk that Kander's paid too much for his own asset (gregory) ... self dealing (mitigant: it was the lessor of the two)
Last two points are the only actual concerns the first two are market inefficiencies and I believe the actual price driver here is the first two points.
Now that deal risk is out and price has not moved much I think many shareholders will get a bit nervous since they expected a quick 2x on a deal announcement. Unless this stock gets some more outside attention I would say expect more bargain deals before listing.
Side note... anyone scratching there head and wondering how the NOLs were preserved through all of this? In particular the $22.5 million issued in clarus stock.... from what I have read ownership can not swing that much or you could lose all the NOLs, maybe Kander's was pairing down his position so this isn't an issue?
FWIW and IMESHO your point # 3 is the most significant one here.
We simply do not have much visibility and most importantly for as long as we are on the pink sheets we will not get much institutional buying beyond the few speculative hedgies out there.
IMHO, our little pup is pretty much an ARB game at this time till the deal is closed on Friday May 28, 2010.
It is my projection and guess that we will start trading on a regular exchange, either the NYSE or Nasdaq come Tuesday June 1, 2010. Until that time the smart arb money OR some of the Black Diamond folks will be buying this thing anytime someone wants to sell under $ 6.
Also, forgot to mention. Clearly they would picked the cheapest valuation they can justify in this situation... obviously they would have done 5$ a share if they thought they could get away with it both black diamond & the gregory sale. This dilution is taking some of our upside of course but for this to trade at or below $6 is nonsense.