This is one of the better, more informative strings I've read in quite awhile...on any board.
At the end of the day, whenever that day may be of course, fundamentals resolve stock prices. In between, however, many other factors drive the price. My feeling is that right now this stock is still way off the radar and hasn't been influenced by any speculative or technical phenomena whatsoever. Instead, it's almost been trading like a bond with decisions based on net cash, discounted NOLs and "flights" in and out of safety although the meek volume over the past couple of years shows there weren't many people on those flights.
When this stock gets some mindshare I expect it to move both above and below whatever fundamental price it should garner. In short, I expect to see it trade above $10 or better and trade a little below where it is today. Mix some speculators in with the stock's miniscule float which is effectively lowered even more by Kanders' position and who knows how high the price could go short term....as in a period of several days in a row.
For the next year, I think the price will be driven much more by top line growth guidance rather than earnings and bottom line fundamentals, at least until growth has stabilized or a revenue target is missed.
I agree, there will likely be more volatility even now as it has gotten more attention but especially once it gets listed. While the swings may be larger, fundamentals are key to keep one's bearing through it all. I don't think about the fundamental value as a destination into the ever extending horizon but rather a centerpoint or mean around which we will see the swings occur. Having a good peg as to where it exists inevitably pays hansomly... as long as you keep your emotions straight.
And yes, I think topline growth will be key here but this stock stands a major correction in either direction depending on where margins come out.