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Black Diamond, Inc. Message Board

  • bob_afet bob_afet May 14, 2010 2:51 PM Flag

    Deal terms

    13d/a it appears the stock WK gets for Gregory purchase will have a 2 year lock up. If there is every justification that 6$ is way to cheap for clrs it is this. WK pays himself with 6$ per share valuaiton (I'm sure lowest valuation he could negotiate) and must hold onto it for 2 years. Still don't understand how this doesn't kill NOLs though...

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    • This is one of the better, more informative strings I've read in quite awhile...on any board.

      At the end of the day, whenever that day may be of course, fundamentals resolve stock prices. In between, however, many other factors drive the price. My feeling is that right now this stock is still way off the radar and hasn't been influenced by any speculative or technical phenomena whatsoever. Instead, it's almost been trading like a bond with decisions based on net cash, discounted NOLs and "flights" in and out of safety although the meek volume over the past couple of years shows there weren't many people on those flights.

      When this stock gets some mindshare I expect it to move both above and below whatever fundamental price it should garner. In short, I expect to see it trade above $10 or better and trade a little below where it is today. Mix some speculators in with the stock's miniscule float which is effectively lowered even more by Kanders' position and who knows how high the price could go short term....as in a period of several days in a row.

      For the next year, I think the price will be driven much more by top line growth guidance rather than earnings and bottom line fundamentals, at least until growth has stabilized or a revenue target is missed.

      Just my opinions.

      • 1 Reply to sideshow32raheem
      • I agree, there will likely be more volatility even now as it has gotten more attention but especially once it gets listed. While the swings may be larger, fundamentals are key to keep one's bearing through it all. I don't think about the fundamental value as a destination into the ever extending horizon but rather a centerpoint or mean around which we will see the swings occur. Having a good peg as to where it exists inevitably pays hansomly... as long as you keep your emotions straight.

        And yes, I think topline growth will be key here but this stock stands a major correction in either direction depending on where margins come out.

    • I'm not so sure. I think most investors got into this stock under a value play. Those same investors are likely not to be the type to give into deal excitement but more grounded in fundamental prospects. Plus with WK's history to look out for #1 and important details still hidden (in addition to risk of the deal going through)I expect many are taking a "wait and see" approach.

    • The announcement of a deal after all this time, should have caused much greater movement in the shareprice.
      The fact that it has not, leads me to believe that this deal is not being viewed very optimistically in terms of
      expectations. It does not help that that the role of NOL's has not been clarified. One thing is certain in my mind...it makes no sense to believe that WK's fate is necessarily tied to ours. Just my humble opinion.

      • 1 Reply to starcutspin
      • I agree. That is why I focus on bits of information that indicate our fates are tied. One being that his payment to himself in clrs shares for Gregory are locked up for 2 years. Given that he valued them at $6 a share that would appear to be a pretty solid floor for this security... especially since WK has shown a history to look out for number 1 and in this case the lowest possible valuation accomplishes that.

    • Bob:

      Considering that Kanders has made such a point quite repeatedly that they wanted to take advantage of not only the big cash balance but more importantly the $ 220 million plus NOL's, that I am quite convinced that Kanders thought that part through and that the NOL's are not lost.

      This is merely a qualifier on my part as I am not a tax accountant or attorney. Am simply relying on Kanders taking care of Kanders by improving the stock price.

    • Bob:

      Considering that Kanders has made such a point quite repeatedly that they wanted to take advantage of not only the big cash balance but more importantly the $ 220 million plus NOL's, that I am quite convinced that Kanders thought that part through and that the NOL's are not lost.

      This is merely a qualifier on my part as I am not a tax accountant or attorney. Am simply relying on Kanders taking care of Kanders by improving the stock price.

 
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