Using mid range Q1 production, prices and expense projections and 92 days I calculate $1.95 eps. Can this be???
From Feb 02 news release:
Expenses for 2006 are expected to fall within the following ranges:
Production expense $0.95 - $1.05
Transportation expense 0.12 - 0.14
Depreciation, depletion and amortization 2.20 - 2.30
General and administrative expense 0.20 - 0.25
Production taxes (% of oil and gas revenue) 6.5% - 7.0%
Normally prior year bonuses and stock option awards are first seen in the Proxy (DEF 14A), which comes out around the time of the 10K. I was wondering if those awards are actually made in Q4 of the previous year or Q1 of the present year.
No way we'll ever be able to outguess the company on the issue of gas gathering and marketing but the last time the company had a similar quarter in terms of pricing--Q3 '05--when they achieved $59.45 oil and $7.88 natural gas, GG & M revenues were $64,833,000 and expenses were $58.875,000 for a net of $5,958,000.
I started this thread with a $1.26 swag. After further review - my lottery entry is as follows:
Gas - $ 232.50 (361.3mmcf/d x $7.15 x 90 days)
Oil - $ 88.24 (16464 bod x $59.55 x 90 days)
Gathering - $ 16.5 (75% of 4th qtr)
Production - $41.4 (460mmcfe/d x 90 x $1)
Transportation - $5.4 (460mmcfe/d x 90 x $.13)
DD&A - $93.15 (460mmcfe/d x 90 x $2.25)
G & A - $9.32 (460mmcfe/d x 90 x $.225)
Interest - $ 7.38 (unchgd 4th qtr)
IBT - $180.5
ITax - $66.2 (36.67%)
NI - $ 114.3
Basic - $1.38 (82.8mm shares)
Diluted - $1.34 85.57mm shares)
"I did like the production increase."
Let's see how much it cost.
The PR isn't a home run nor is it a single. Today's action, however, looks like some folks did some calulating and didn't like the answer they were reading. Maybe tomorrow other calculators will do some buying.
"Major league respect for your many intelligent posts."
Boots, boots, my kingdom for some boots!
Thanks peter! I was using 100% on my multiplier instead of the ratio. After applying the changes it dropped the Revenue $ 20M.
The wildcard in this is the Gathering Income / (Loss).
Entering the Gathering Income at Zero puts us at
Nice to hear from you and I appreciate the intelligent criticsim but I think you are too strong on your Ng top line.
Ng sales have to be lower than you have inidicated unless the ratios are different than noted historically.