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First Majestic Silver Corp. Message Board

  • pmguru_1 pmguru_1 Jun 2, 2011 12:08 AM Flag

    First Majestic 2 year price target - $135

    With Del Toro and 16M oz of silver production.

    I think silver will be averaging around $70-80 then and AG will have a cash margin of about $55-65 (I am assuming costs will double to about $15 per oz.)

    16M x $60 casg margin = $960M

    So with almost $1B in operating cash flow I can see this having a market cap of $11-15B, which would imply up to $150 per share, but it could be a lot more since AG might have over $1B cash in the treasury by then, which would give it more of a premium multiple.

    AG options suck. The calls and puts are all expensive and the stock has to make a big move either way to get in the money. Better to just hold AG shares and buy on any irrational selling.

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    • I'd like to see AG take out $26 and run to the low 30s before we start thinking $135. Obviously, we need silver to hang here and advance into the 40s again. Not sure if its now, this fall or end of year but there is NO STOPPING the silver bull. Anyone with a lick of sense and no silver needs to think about stacking a nice pile. Allocate some now and set aside money to convert if you ever get the lower prices you're unlikely to see. Just my opinions. Junk silver is cost effective way to purchase silver at these prices. I just bought some for 75 cents under spot. But I like large bars more. First Majestic and Great Panther have really beautiful products but right now their premiums are not competitive with even apmex

      • 1 Reply to pmguru_1
      • good to see your posts...looks like we are in for a good old fashion deflation scare, here...With respect to AG I fear (and hope) there will be a moment (when I haven't bought in) when fundamentals will be thrown out the window in a rush to liquidate at any cost. We have long term winners with profits to book and new comers with incresing losses....all adds up to a sell off spike here at some point...Agree US silver coins are a great way to invest in silver...Maybe we see a reversal up today or tomorrow...or I would suspect by the full moon, early next week...

    • As long as there are a high rate of foreclosures and people preferring to rent over home ownership, QE will continue or the US will lose it's power and the and the dollar will be worthless.

      The only way out of this Is for towns to stop with the high property taxes. It makes no sense to own a home any more.

    • with POG in both usd and euro approachibg or exceeding historical high, the manipulation of EURO/DOLLAR does not have any effect any more.

      Dollar up, euro gold hits new high;
      Dollar down, dollar gold hits new high.
      simply put, gold rises against all fiat currency.

    • Well, my cautiouness doesn't look very good overnight with Silver up 50 odd cents...moving to the higher end of the $34-$38.50 range.....I will agree that a big drop for PMs this summer would not seem to be in the fundlemental cards but sever downdrafts might very well be, led by the bullion bank cabal selling programs. Any problem the EURO over the Creek issue will raise the dollar index and probably hurt the metals....but who knows....its all speculation....with, in the case of AG, one certainty: great Q2 earnings...with the prospect of more of such to come.

      Asian markets are down overnight so there isn't a "risk on bid" in the Asian stock markets. Aussie up, their shares down and looking weak technically. Dollar pretty much flat...Silver is the out performer, making up for Friday???....nuts...just when a little weakness at the opening followed by a reversal would have been so grand.

    • Agree. Three to four years out that target of 135 will be too low.

    • Ha, Ha, only in your wildest dreams.

    • Going at it a slightly different way I was surprised to find I came up with $135 too.

      "AG options suck. ...Better to just hold AG shares and buy on any irrational selling."

      May very well be right. I don't have much success buying options...the only time I do is when I buy when things are really looking bleak...One way to go I am considering is to buy the in the money calls, say $17.50s for July which require about a 5% move up in the stock to break even. Cost is about 20% of the full purchase price...Gains are always short term and the bid ask is another expense...however, a way to get some leverage, but one has to be very good at picking the right entry points....maybe a combination of share ownership and in the money calls ???

      Be interesting to see how the PM sector holds up if the employment number is bad tomrrow...If the number is bad and the PM sector divorces itself from the general market and the shares follow the metal or lead....I'll add...

    • I ment to say i hope your right about that.

      • 1 Reply to jay888811
      • "AG options suck. The calls and puts are all expensive and the stock has to make a big move either way to get in the money"

        You're right, the premiums are high, due largely IMO to the stock's extreme volatility and fairly low option volume. So I have taken advantqage of this by being a seller rather than a buyer of both out of the money calls and puts. So far, every one has expired unexercised.

    • I your right about that.

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