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JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. Message Board

  • lepv123 lepv123 Jan 12, 2012 3:25 PM Flag

    Ody, Twoheaded, given the recents news, do you

    think that JKS can revisit $15 by end of year?

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    • No the 15% cut is refereing to German energy subsidies. Lower subsidies generally mean that installations to maintain profits need to have lower costs. Typically much of the cost savings has come from lower prices in the panel suppliers.

      What the past several years has shown, is everytime a fit reduction in Germany is to occur, there is a spike in installations in Germany as the installers try to get projects completed to yield better profits from the currently higher FIT.

      Using this same logic that has shown true, one could expect early 2012 to have nice demand in Germany. There will be a point at which time the profits enjoyed pre-cut to post cut will become marginal and the demand sput may not occur. That is in theory when installations will slow down in germany to their targets of 3GW anually.

    • Apologize for my ignorance, but I'm just trying to learn as I go here. The 15% percent cut is referring to inventory reduction? If that is true that we may have another 15% reduction, then JKS will most likely hit $10, and TSL $15 just by judging momentum.

    • Guys, the 3 GW december install in Germany flushed inventory at retail and wholesale level. Simultaneously global utilization rates at manufacturing level were very low and some unsustainable poly and wafer capacity were shut down. This means that inventory levels were reduced to very low levels across the chain. This will probably trigger some shortage based price surge without too much demand required. I think the industry healed in december and hopefully can stabilize. I see the following as healthy for industry in 2012:

      Poly 40
      Wafer .50
      Cell .75
      Module 1.08

      All average product quality, geographical market and for the whole year.

    • No problem Snake.

      Most have no clue what they are talking about.
      Getting made at companies just because ASP's are falling due to over capacity. Everybody who listen to SOL CEO in April 2011 should only blame themself for losing money in Solar stocks.

    • Thanks for having my back.

      I have that guy and his 5 other monickers on ignore. He has done nothing but mock me for 4 years. In fact he posts just to bury what I say. He is the typical LDK long that does nothing but bash people. He is not worth reading as he has never posted value.

      Atleast MrInsertHere at times posts something worth reading.

      But again thanks for having my back.

    • Floppy

      The 15% cut in June is a done deal.

      Might trigger a rush in first half in Germany again. In May we will see another 2-3GW installed same like December 2011.

    • Snake I was defending you.

      Bongwater was mocking you.

    • Now Germany only needs to install 300MW in 1H2012 to triggle 15% cut in June.

    • Boss,

      Most likely this surging demand was to remove the stuffed inventory instead of instigating new orders.

      ASP are still Eur65-75c for tier-one and 50-60c for tier-2 and 3. Capacity at leading makers are still running 60-70% utilization. So, isn't this a discrepency to what we are seeing in Germany? I think the answer is Germany took it from channeled inventory.

      Assuming ASP 85c and $27 poly, JKS will lose over 50c.

      Vishay provided a good opportunity for short-squeeze. Nothing you are seeing is the real picture.

      Potential concern:

      1) Jan cut 15%, another 15% cut in June.

      2) Germany politicians may further put some Fit restriction to aviod this type of ambush rush-in.

      3) US Cash grant expires.

      The only good part is China may install 5GW 2012.

    • ///What is wrong with that statement???///

      Nothing as it was absolutley accurate. Do you not think in Mid to late November those companies at ER new what Dec was like? It takes 60 days to ship product to Europe.

      If in Mid to late November Executives had no idea of Order bookdings for the year, they should be fired for incompetencies. You might get a 1 or 5Mw order but your not going to get a 25 or 50MW order out of nowhere.

      Now in January after December a JKS Executive implies Q1 is down 10-20% in shipments from Q4.

      So where is the demand you are suggesting? Inventory liquidation of the severe glut oversupply?

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32.23-0.43(-1.32%)Sep 19 4:10 PMEDT

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