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JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. Message Board

  • floppy_6 floppy_6 Feb 17, 2012 11:47 AM Flag

    CSIQ

    CSIQ is so far the only Chinese solar moving up there and maintain there.

    STP's news is no biggie. Gross margin is still lousy, extra sales is already known.

    Why CSIQ?

    SPWR's UPP (Utility, power Plant) has 17% margin while R&C (Residential and Commercial) merely has 7% margin. So, as story goes, it strongly suggests projects are where the future lie. While SPWR's earning is a fake (boosted by one-time equity sales of 22c), they are talking about go-to-market strategy - that's to create the demand your own.

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    • They appear to be about 1 quarter ahead of TSL in costs now. Their gross margins for Q1 will likely be 3%+/- higher than a TSL and they have alower operational structure.

    • Excellent presentation from CSIQ,
      http://solarpvinvestor.com/spvi-blog/item/canadian-solar-presentation-summary

      cost per watt at 0.74 including polysilicon. This should make them pretty good in Q4 and Q1

    • 5-8% gross margin although stays unchanged from the prior guidence. Actually this is a margin improvement from prior guidence.

      CSIQ only has 1300MW cell capacity and 300MW wafer capacity. So, their cell capacity wasn't sufficient enough for the original guided volume 340-360MW. The additional 85MW from the new guidence 430-440MW will all have to allocate to the lowest margin segment - module-only production. If they are still able to maintain the original margin guidence, it tells you that their wafer cost is actually lower than originally expected.

      Separately, YGE's before-write-down margin of 12% is actually higher than the prior guidence of 10%.

    • CSIQ and YGE were two solar stocks usually least active in option tradings both on volume and premium.

      On Friday, March 4 call was traded more than 10K contracts. This is significant not only in volume but also significant premium that usual. CSIQ's march $4 call almost carries twice premium than YGE. (near 50c vs. only 20c)

      Just an observation. probably means nothing.

    • I think LDK is using AMAT cell equipment. They usually go for upgradable state-of-the-art from top US an European suppliers like amat, gtat, centrotherm etc. Gcl and sol as contrast are betting more on domestic suppliers. Not sure which is best.

      I remember the SOL comment. I'm not sure it was just not an excuse for them not seeing JC solar as best expansion oppotunity. I think the quasi and poly track is right if they don't feel comfortable doing cells.

    • Explo

      I did not question LDK furnace upgrades or quasi mono. LDK started the furnace belly upgrades late in 2010. The quasi mono is likely from their RnD efforts or purchasing through third party.

      My comments or should I say questions were related to SOLs indicating back in late 2010 early 2011 they did not want to invest in cell technology they felt was going to be obsolete. I remember the comments because most people missed it and focused on SOL saying they were not expanding into more cells. They missed the reasoning why they were not.

      LDK went full bore during that period far more than any other company. So it is reasonable to question what technologies that SOL saw that they deemed potentially short lived and what other vendors are implementing and how it may impact future costs and capex for productions.

      Do you have information on the technology and vendor of choice LDK purchased for cell manufacturing. How is this large recent investment future protected from new technologies such that LDK can maximize shareholder equity?

    • As far as I know Sunpower uses a n type mono wafers and structures their cells in what you called ABC (all back contacts) or what others called IBC (Interdigitated Back-Contact). They use very high purity poly, and very high quality surface passivisation. The process is expensive and technology is patented.

      MWT introduction to n type wafer like Panda brings it to more conventional methods
      this links speaks of method applications for n type wafers, where boron the p emitter is introduced to n type base doped using boron.
      http://solarpvinvestor.com/spvi-news/88-cell-manufacturing-process-and-future-cell-technologies
      Panda cells are also bifacial, so they work from both sides.
      The old and new system uses this equipment and as well as ECN
      http://www.tempress.nl/
      Based on my checks the Panda progress to MWT is simply adding laser hole drill and metal via paste printing which is new, but we are not talking entire line changes.
      Ion implantation is considered better for n types, rather than doping or emitter forming, this link will give you an idea on why. Varian which was bought by AM is the pioneer of the process, which is better for n types and improves efficiency as well eliminates PSG cleaning and edge forming. Suniva uses it commercially and Varian announced deals with 7 Chinese companies, but no names were ever published, Yingli would be the first one interested because of n type benefits.
      http://solarpvinvestor.com/spvi-news/91-n-type-wafers-new-developments-in-wafering-new-module-expectations

    • Snake, i know sol i doing it with good success, but you questioned if ldk could and they say they are. It's not strange that yge need new equipment for n-type mono, since that should differ more from their existing multi than quasi-mono does. The question is why trina aren't retrofitting.

    • CSIQ is good - doing very well recently, operationally.

      JKS has a big problem - slow on R&D or one can say almost non-existent, some how I feel it is a bit like Dell, lean and mean, but weak R&D. JKS also admits openly it is slow - so that it can avoid mistakes and avoid waste.

    • What about STP admitting bloated book and taking a 571 million charge? This means they'll report a GAAP loss around 600 million for Q4. Stock up 8%. Market seems to like capital mismanagement. STP burning like an early .com.

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