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JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. Message Board

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Feb 29, 2012 9:20 AM Flag

    YGE 2012 guidance speculative risk

    2.4GW with 30% business in China is 800MW or a 16% share of the 5GW in China. That volume is 50% of the 2011 shipments.

    The news on that when asked is very little in Q1 and there really are not signed binding contracts as of yet.

    Again, another company apparently setting up chanell stuffing in the US, only YGE has not taken any potential Q4 provisions. These will wind up in Q1.

    Inventory shipped using Poly above $50/kg in Q4
    Inventory to be between $35-$40 for Q1 shipments
    that places an manufacturing ASP around $0.85

    Opex and Interest at $100M

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    • Good observation, they said majority is multi, I think this is for the China market.
      The Panda II upgrade is to add laser drill, to make MWT format. I think those will be for US and Europe markets.

    • Snake,

      >Year = 2150/763.5/1386 = $0.894 / $0.813 / $0.939

      YGE has a statement that China ASP is probably 5-8% below other ASP.

      TSL also has a statement "China having a low ASP but it is comparable to sometimes the things you see in spot projects in Italy".

      Even assuming 92c from the other part of world, you can get 86c ASP in China if you take YGE's statement for granted. Then, that ends you a blended ASP of 90c (35% from China in YGE).

      BTW, YGE stated 85% of China sales concentrates in Q2/Q3.

    • Snake,

      with blended cost in Q1 claimed to be $35-40 and further 1-2c improvement on non-silicon, you can figure about 93.5c ASP to reach 10% gross.

      Guess what? Vishay has YGE Q4 2012 pegged for 9c. 800MW (strictly from CC, it seems 700MW) ASP 88c with poly $27.2 and processing 57c, all-in at 73c. I think YGE in Q3 stated targeting to maintain opex at $60 millions. Both CICC and Vishay still apply this number in spite of expanded volume. That may be too optimistic. In the case with Vishay, Q4 gross margin 16.5%, opex 8.9% ending OI at 7.6%. Sounds way aggressive but recall that opex consists of 40% selling exp, 40% G&A, 20% Rnd. Only roughly 80% of selling expense is volume-related or freight-related. YGE targets 35% of total volume occurs in China - 900MW which will be off fright. I don't know how TSL and YGE sufffered tremendous opex % this Q. Trina had always been poor in opex. YGE paid some opex for unrecognized revenue into Q1. Opex % is a very confusing issue, it is really the make-it-or-break-it issue for coming quarters.

    • And why all the new manufacturing bases?

    • The transcript says they said their capacity expansion will be mainly multi. I don't get that. Panda will go up from 19% cell efficiency in 2011 to 20.5% in 2012. this means BOS savings of 15 cents compared to standard multi (not quasi mono) which translate to 15 cents ASP premium for panda vs multi. Similarily the 15% power difference help reduce panda per watt cost. Panda should become increasingly profitable and demandable. Why build 750 mw multi when they are progressing well on their n-type venture?

    • Let me say a word - YGE seems to have been excessively punished for lack-luster Q4 if you compare charts in between the peers. I pointed out here before that YGE's conservatism in recognizing the revenue to result a poor Q4. As a consequence, Q1 is up 30% from Q4 in comparison with TSL being flat (right?). So, Overall YGE does not underperform anyone to deserve an excessive punishment.

      opex 17% was partially attributed to the shipment already made but not recognized. The company vows to maintain opex below $60 millions.

      Conclusion - I don't see major reasons for YGE to be off the emperor's seat even though I was the one posted question for his cloth one time.

      • 1 Reply to floppy_6
      • Also, Isn't YGE the only company so far pointing double-digit margin in both Q4 and Q1?

        Previously my impression was that Panda's extra processing cost will offset the premium AsP they get. I think ASP this Q around $1.09 (pls verify). With large contribution from china (low ASP), they still get that ASP. This tells you 1) YGE enjoys the premium being tier-one 2) Panda contributes extra premium.

        On the cost side, they guided 56-58c by YE. If this included Panda in a blended cost, this is excellent since Panda is already a big portion to overall shipment.

        I maintain YGE being the only other company cost-competitive to CSIQ (GCL gang). One thing worth noting - CSIQ hasn't written down asset?

    • Another confirmation of no EPS in 2012 for Solar companies.

      ASP's going below $0.90.

      • 1 Reply to boss111
      • Hey crackie, how is it possible with asps going below 90c when CSIQ in january said capacity that can produce at $1/W without loss is just around 15 GW? If there is infact still overcapacity (would be crazy...), then we're likely to see asps dropping further in tandem with cost reductions until we reach an equilibrium. Clearly that CSIQ slide from january was very very wrong, unless much of this is inventory being liquidated.

    • Estimated around 350MT of Poly produced at 10-15% of their needs in Q4.

 
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