module+ cell processing ---0.46----0.41 ---- ---- ----
wafer cost+processing-----0.73---0.68 -----------0.66 ----
silicon cost based on $26--0.15---0.15----0.15-----N/A----0.15
Blended all-in cost-------0.765---0.710---0.72----0.66----0.73
Net income margin.........-2.9% ...-1.3%...-2.5%..4.0%...-12.4%
STP/TSL/YGE/CSIQ/JKS/LDK/SOL = .79/.77/.77/.75/,74/.74/.74
2) Poly cost : $24 (US recently shipped large volume to China @$24.
3) Wafer cost: 25c (with the possible near 20c by YE, GCL should be able to sell wafer at 25c)
4) Individual processing costs:
CSIQ: The current processing cost is 20c/23c for cell and module. Their goal YE is 15c/20c through mainly the reduction of silver paste usuage. My assumption is 16/22c. ELPS sports 10% premium with 5% added cost.
SOL: Their current (cell+module) processing cost is 42c. With wafer going down to 15c YE, their stated goal is only 67c for full integration. that implies no improvement for cell+module. That's bit unreasonable especially compared with CSIQ, may have a bit cost saving room there.
The rest is basically from companies' guidance.
5) (interest+opex) per watt cost:
I made terrible mistake on copy and paste in excel. So it was totally screwed up.
Their (interest+opex) costs should be 24.5/15.3/21.1/12.7/21.2/21.5/11.3 cents respectively for STP/TSL/YGE/CSIQ/JKS/LDK/SOL. This is based on recent interest payment and stated opex goal from respective companies.
Net margin conclusion:
You may add back 7-8% depreciation cost to reach cash margin. Worth noting is when JKS states a processng cost goal nearly equal to YGE/JKS. Actually, JKS is inferior since JKS's depreciation cost is lower for newer equipments than other two.
CSIQ's opex alone is near 12c below that of STP (not to mention lesser interest). But for STP's stated goal of opex $80 millions per quarter and CSIQ only spent $44 millions in latest quareter net of one-time, yet their shipping volume is nearly the same, I really can't figure out how to pull two closer on opex.
At this speed of erosion, tier-one may become tier-2 (due to degradation on balance sheet) in no time.
>SOL: Their current (cell+module) processing cost is 42c. With wafer going down to 15c YE, their stated goal is only 67c for full integration. that implies no improvement for cell+module. That's bit unreasonable especially compared with CSIQ, may have a bit cost saving room there<
SOL is buying most cell from third party. They only have 240 MW of cell capacity. With 600MW modules shipment in 2012,SOL will buy 360MW from third party. So no cost saving there.
Well, for those who claims they can lower the processing by such and such like YGE/CSIQ, I have serious doubts.
Even with the lower consumables, there are limits as what you can do...
Module ASP will down faster that most thought - so expect bigger loss by YE.
///Module ASP will down faster that most thought - so expect bigger loss by YE. ///
You go that right. Most of my models I have been preaching for the $0.15 gross profit had a low $0.90 average ASP for 2012 that has since been wacked with the guidance of most companies. My theoretical overbearishness has once again been shown to be bullish.
With SOL and others looking at the low $0.80s for Q1 and $0.70 by year end, it really makes you wonder about the YGE TSL and STP having their ASP hold up when they are expecting end of Q1/Q2/Q3 for major rampup for shipments to China.
Something has got to breakdown.
hey snake. I think you are one of the smartest on the solar sector but on the overall energy policy, subsidy topic let us not overlook some key facts.
1) in 2009 the german bank for reconstruction already pointed out that the 2009 german investments in renewable energy built in that year pays off over 20 years 100% - alone by avoidance of buying oil and gas from other nations.
2) renewables you install. oil and gas you import day by day. oil and gas outflow for germany and most other nations in europe is 100%. meaning we have zero resources our own. so it is 100% money outflow.
3) on solar below 50% are module costs. most is BOS costs so also local work. it might be that china starts financing the projects but so far I havent seen one chinese worker on any of our houses - so that money stays here.
4) dont forget that solar is not module only business. largest inverter comp is german and alot of stuff in the halls from tsl, csiq and friends is equipment from germany. we were never a country of mass production - so that modules go somewhere else cant surprise anyone. however, we still sell alot of equipment.
5) energy independeny. I think it is preferable to be able to create your own electricity without being 100% dependend on other nations.
how many billions of US$ did the US put into iraq wars ? I understand oil was also a topic here. rather create your own energy at home is what I would recommend.
6) no country has installed as much solar as germany. no one paid so high prices to build solar AND wind. the bill is paid by consumers. 100%.
the amount is 5 euro per household per month. that is the fact.
if you live at home with 3-4 people we pay a bit more than 1 euro per month for this.
is this too much ? I dont think so.
7) we have 300-500K jobs in the renewable sector in germany. the US being many fold larger and having like 3-times the population should then be able to create 1 million jobs - which means tax income from individuals and companies.
these are the facts IMO...the renewable wave wont be stopped anymore. it has just begun.
I didnt even quote enviromental points...and that oil and gas wont get cheaper as more and more is consumed...
Never lose sight of the target. That is $1/watt installed. That allows for financing and maintenance over the life span the be competative at $0.06 unsibsidized. Financing adds 60% to the cost over the life of the plant. Maintenance will add another $0.15. That puts all in costs around $1.75 or around $0.06/kwhr +/- depending on where installed. Add $0.20 if you want mass storage.
Until then, costs in all sections go lower. Land, Property, Plants, energy costs etc all must be far lower and efficiency gains are required.
Not everyone is for subsidies that funel money oversees. It was nice to say we will subsidize you at $0.12 per watt as long as all that money was for local productions and local jobs. But that is not the model anymore. I do not want half the subsidy going oversees or in some cases all the subsidies with the Chinese getting into global projects.
While I was for subsidies, I am against them now.
>normally this result in higher asps in H2 - that is all I say. maybe asps just freeze around 90 US$ cents.
I have a feeling that those who sign long-term module contracts now might regret later on... <
With SOL selling to Europe at 0.60 euro (or at $0.78 with exchange rate of $1.3) I do not think $0.90 will be a stop on ASP decline. SOL says ASP's $0.70-$0.75 by end of 2012. Which confirms CSIQ view. With those ASP's in mind,where does this leave First Solar?