Deutsche Bank met with over 20 solar companies and policy makers in China last week
Deutsche Bank met with over 20 solar companies and policy makers in China last week and said that “the 14GW solar target would be difficult to achieve without a major near term policy change”, in a research note published today.
Beijing will have to make policy changes to meet the 14GW target, according to analysts Vishal Shah, Michael Tong, Eric Cheng and Kai-Ting Wong:
Permitting process for utility scale projects is likely to slowdown once the 6GW target is reached and relatively low returns along with concerns over counterparty risk and lack of bank financing are likely to result in only 1-2GW of DG installations vs govt target of 8GW.
Government and industry groups are working on a number of different options.
Most people think any potential change is unlikely until Q3 timeframe and it is likely that the government does not meet the 14GW target (it has happened with wind once).
Not all companies will be able to achieve their ~500MW system installation targets in 2014 since we expect provincial permitting caps to be reached by mid 2014 timeframe.