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Gorman-Rupp Co. Message Board

  • jmnail jmnail Feb 17, 2001 5:40 PM Flag

    Probabilities

    my feeling is that there is 50% chance the extended 4 wave - 40% chance 3 wave and 10% chance bullish.


    So, I have very little confidence right now (in terms of near-term direction), and I applying it accordingly. 100% cash, daytrades only, no holding overnight.

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    • or continue, I should say.

    • ok, my portfolio is set up -- let the madness begin.

    • I got a pessimistic frriend who kept on telling me to sell. He said it's so obvious that economy will crash. Something about the dollar failing, liquidity crunch, and so on and so forth. He's been telling me eversince last march. He is saying nas will go to 1500 and still overvalued. I don't know why I'm still trading. Still holding stocks. Did manage to raise 25% cash at one time, and threw it all in NUFO. I just can't sit on cash. I keep thinking each position I take is a possibility. Look at NUFO, if I'm out of it, I can't get back so easily. The thing opens 5 points up from the night before, so how can you get back in gracefully?

      Then, there is this one little posting talking about our economy going to be depressed for a long time, and the worst is yet to come. All of a sudden I panic. I had this panic feeling I absolutely have to sell everything. There were bits and pieces of informations about the crash of economy that I ran accross. I ignored them most of the time. And then this one little piece of nothing from the bbs board all of a sudden hit me like a ton of bricks. Human psyche, I just don't get it. This market is surely scary.

      And NUFO surely goes either way in a quick and scary fashion. I just narrowly escaped this last fall. I bought at 36, and then the next morning wake up open at 43, how do you trade with things like that? Luckily I sold at 45 that day, and then it dropped to 38 after hours. I simply can't believe it. I bit my teeth on friday, and bought back my shares at 35 again. Will I have the luck of seeing open at 43 again? This other friend of mine just said: "You don't listen to charts, do you?" He was the one who told me to be patient for NUFO to drop to 36, so I listened, and when NUFO dropped to 36 I bought, but he didn't buy. He knows the chart, why didn't he buy? I have no idea. Sometimes you just have to say it's fate. He now said that NUFO could drop to below 30. I didn't listen this time, I couldn't wait and bought at 35. We'll see who is right.

      OK, here are my picks for the stocks of 2001: NUFO, AVNX, SP WX, CRGN, NVDA.

      5 is more than I can handle. Currently I only have 3 of the above. Good luck everyone.

 
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