I guess I posted before your last message came up, because now I see that you didn't get SGUZY. You really should look at that one, it got some really good press from WSJ recently, and seems to be getting very popular lately. Look at the trading volumes on the berlinerboerse. An hour ago, it was beating LUKOY in volume there. Also, you get 50 shares per ADR. I'm not sure how that works, but I would expect that as share prices in Russia go up it would make the ADRs worth more, faster??? Is that right, or am I completely off base on that one? Surgut is a pretty much no-frills company, and it hasn't borrowed any money, or set up expensive offices in Moscow. It is mostly concentrating on business, rather than public relations, which is one of the reasons WSJ likes it. (This sounds like a sales pitch, (sorry about that), but I really think you should research it, and decide for yourself before it gets too high).
Hi kathi17, Finance_Guy, jimczar, ddog, wrbt, gazprom, et. al.!
I have just come back to this board (as of last week)! From February to last week, I had not even looked at my stocks. Last week I looked at my stocks again, because with the drop in ROS to 3 or so in early April, my sister said she was concerned. (I had recommended to her to buy some ROS, so she bought a little bit of it around December or January. My sister's daughter's boyfriend also bought some, but sold it when it went down in early April!)
Was I in for a pleasant surprise last week! I looked at an oil driller thread (I don't own any oil drillers now but I look at that thread) and someone said that this has been the biggest and fastest rise in history for them! I had felt that oil prices would eventually recover, but I never expected that they would recover this dramatically!!! I looked at my Russian oil stocks and saw that they had also gone up dramatically! I caught up on a lot of posts on this and other message boards. I saw that ROS was still at around 4 last Wednesday or Thursday, so it was lagging. So I bought some more ROS at 4 1/4 the next day.
In response to your concern, I have looked at what is going on with my stocks, especially Rostelecom. I am more optimistic than ever now about Rostelecom!!! Much has changed in the last 2-3 months. Here is why I am so optimistic:
1. Oil prices have skyrocketed back up!!!! I knew this without even looking at my stocks, from looking at prices at the gas pump! Prices for crude oil have gone back up about 60 or more percent! This was one of the things that I had felt would be inevitable. Oil Prices through January 1999 went down more than at any time since 1900! I felt it was only a matter of time before they would go back up. Oil companies can't survive on $10 per barrel oil. 2. How does this affect Russia? Big!!! About 50% of Russia's tax revenue is from its oil and gas companies. This is far more than Mexico's 20%. Mexican stocks have rallied big on this news. It is only a question of time before all of Russian stocks will. In fact, Russian oil stocks (Lukoil, for example, which I told you about) already have gone up sharply! Lukoil has gone up from $17 where I bought it to $32! The whole Russian crisis and default last summer was due to the collapse in oil prices. Now with oil back up, we will see the situation reverse itself. 3. The IMF I believe has just agreed to provide Russia with a loan of $3.5 million. This opens the door for the World Bank and others such as Japan to also provide loans, which they were waiting for the IMF approval before so doing. In December or January, Russia was put in a status of 'selective default' by credit watch agencies, and because a company's securities cannot have a higher rating than that of the government the country is in, this status carried over to Russian companies generally. With these loans, Russia should be taken off the 'selective default' category, opening the way for institutions to begin investing in Russian equities. 4. The Asian meltdown is pretty much over. Money is flooding over to Asia again. Korea's stock market has led the way. A Korean fund that I was in has gone up from $1.75 to $5.75. With people seeing that money is to be made in emerging markets again, it is only a question of time before money starts pouring into Russia again. 5. The situation in Brazil has seemed to improve since January, at least based on the rally in stock prices there (up about 50% in the Brazil Fund that I am invested in). This was a major damper on emerging markets in general, when Brazil had a currency collapse in January and a mini-stock market crash. Money seems to be flooding back not only to Asia but Latin America as well. And I believe this is only the beginning of it. Huge rallies usually happen for good reason and are the portent of further sustained rallies in the months and years to follow. In other words, this seems to be the beginning of a bull market for emerging markets in general, including Russia.