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Time Warner Inc. Message Board

  • singlefin singlefin Jan 16, 1998 1:03 AM Flag

    Imall is shopping on the web! www.imall.

    Aol's mall can't compare!
    The place to shop and explore!
    nasd- iiml

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    • It really was not a down grade.

    • reflects recent run up in AOL price. It is STILL
      a buy. Understandably, they felt AOL was a less
      compelling buy at the higher price. Next earnings report or
      other new announcements could bump the First Boston
      rating back up. Lose no sleep over it, esp. if you are
      in this for the long term.

    • from strong buy to buy ????????

    • WOW!!! What a bad call.......

    • I agree 100%. One uptick in this stocks and everyone says the shorts must be running. AOL will start to fall very soon. I have also taken a very large position in the Feb 90 put. I believe AOL is going to get killed when earnings release in early Feb. Then will see the stock holders panic.. Nothing can justify the p/e or stock price of AOL....

    • I am with you. I am short at 95 and some change.
      This is a good company, but the stock price is
      getting ridiculous. They have not provened to
      me that they can be valued at nearly 100 dollars.

      With competition increasing (MCI / Yahoo) and others,
      I am convinced to start seeing AOL in the eighties.
      I am short-term, so I will cover at around 85 - 88.

      Long term wise, RELAX, they will do fine.


    • Could today's rise be the last gasp for this stock? Today's move following another vague announcement couldn't even provide for greater than average volume. Overall the up move these last several weeks is on much lighter volume than the previous runup in the stock.

      As for today's announcement, could it be any more loaded up? Mass-market momentum? How does one define this? Their
      subscriber growth is up 37.5% since last January (from February 10-Q). This is substantially lower than in previous years. Could theybe
      entering their "slow growth phase" - in subscribers not in earnings - while the stock continues to an ever higher valuation? It seems
      as if they count users as soon as they sign up, instead of after their free trial has passed. Thus, I think any bounce from sub
      $1000 computer sales is already in this number. At this moment the market values AOL's 11 million subscribers at about $890 each
      (after subtracting $3 of book value per share).

      Note: AOL paid about $90 a subscriber in their recent Compuserve aquisition.

      Improved subscriber retention? OK, well why not give us some numbers? Give us specifics instead of just stating that it is better.

      Insiders sold 23 million dollars of this stock in December. Since 8 insiders sold I doubt they all bought huge houses at once.

      Competition increasing - not only from ISP and new MCI/Yahoo and new rollout of MSN, but the new high speed access consortium pledges new modem technology by Christmas. Advertising dollars on the internet will be scarce, and Yahoo! already has 20 million regular users, nearly double that of AOL. They also have gross margins near 75% and can compete to lure away advertisers.

      I'm short at $92 and will increase position tomorrow if this stock continues up.

      I'd love to hear from a bull on this stock when this stock will ever earn enough to justify its capitalization.

    • I surrendered today and bought to cover my short! It was very painful. I don't understand why you feel good about people losing money!!!!!!

    • But in order for them to make their big gains, they have to take on some pain, eh? I'd never buy or short AOL. The upside is limited from here, but the short squeeze could continue for weeks. All I know is I wish I had $1 for every AOL freebie floppy that was thrown away. Centuries from now they'll find a layer of 'em when doing archeological digs in landfills. The company is about as environmentally irresponsible as you can get.

    • The only time I benefited from shorts was when Hilary Clinton sold Merck short and then scared investors with her slam of pharmaceuticals and socialized medicine. I was able to get Merck at $28 and it has almost quadrupled since then. One thing I can thank the Clintons for even if it was a dastardly deed.

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