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Time Warner Inc. Message Board

  • rchakrav rchakrav Jan 22, 1998 12:25 AM Flag

    down tomorrow

    Asia is down pretty big right now, so aol could be heading south tomorrow. Aol has shot up recently, and I think that this could be the start of a 5-10 point correction before moving higher. Any thoughts?

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    • !!!

    • How can a company continue to trade at $90+ and loose $1.2 per share??? With a market cap of $9B, -$1.26 earnings, what is the logical attractiveness of this loser?

      Why can't people see past the glamor of AOL and see the company for the cash sucking loser it is?

      They've continued to expand their membership, but still can't make a dime. Will we see access rates jump to $50/month? Or will they double their advertising rates like the TV networks are attempting to do?

      I just don't understand it....

    • >Hey with the bazillion free disks and free
      >useage gimmicks around why don't you just connect?

      He probably doesn't want to be one of those people that signs
      up for the free trial and then has to spent 20 hours of phone
      calls and letters trying to get AOL to drop the account and
      credit his card.

      I've *never* signed up for AOL (I've been a dedicated internet
      direct user for over 10 years), yet somehow they started charging
      a credit card of mine. *Unbelieveable* I should dig up those
      old credit card statements and send them to my state's A.G.
      The AOL people kept insisting I had an account, so I said "OK
      tell me what my sign on ID is and my address & phone number.
      They couldn't do it.

      But, trying to ignore my personal grudge, I still think the
      stock is overvalued on an objective basis. It is just a matter
      of when it will drop. It is possible that it keeps going up
      until xDSL or cable modems become popular. Even in that case,
      it might be possible that a lot of internet people sign up
      for AOL. (Don't they have a program where internet users can
      pay $4.95 and get AOL content via the internet?)

    • What about when advertisers realize that it's children using aol the most. Think they might mover their advertising to other mediums??????

    • Could someone please tell me if the AOL.COM page
      that I see on the internet is the same as the AOL.COM
      page that subscribers to aol see?

    • Earnings are due out Thursday, Feb. 5th. 0.16 is expected.

    • There is always many different ways to view the value of a company or stock. One way says it will go up, the other down,
      However, I must side with nutstoo on this one. Wall street always gets down to the bottom line when it comes to the value of any
      stock. My opinion, AOL must come out with earnings no less than 3 to 5 cents ABOVE expectations. If not, the stock will be
      battered. If you don't beleive me, just look at what they have done to the majority of companies that realeased earnings. As of 1/23
      64% of those companies that have met or exceeded expectations have lost $1 to $15 per share. I hate to tell you what the stats
      are for those that have not met their expectations. The market is overpriced in general and AOL has no FINANCIAL fundamentals
      that can justify its current price. I know I cant be proven right or wrong until earnings come out, so we'll talk then. By the
      way, I have a very large Feb put position. so you know where I stand.

    • This is way off. AOL does not have half the eyes of the internet. Although they do have the ability to flood them
      with advertisements this will hurt them through subscriber
      attrition eventually.

      Dell is in a totally different situation. The cost of entrance into their industry is huge. AOL is trying to compete on the internet where the startup costs are miniscule. Every major
      city has an ISP, every Telco is ramping up, microsoft has one
      and is covering it's bases with both cable and xDSL technology.
      I believe even Compaq has started one.

      Aol has not shown anyone then can make significant money, but
      they did show everyone there is some value to controlling the

      Jus one more opinion......

    • Dell has had 12 quarters with over 40% growth, and that industry is much more competitive. It is going to be very difficult for any company to catch up to AOL. AOL has a near monopoly situation on the eyeballs using the internet.

    • nutstoo,
      I respect your ideas and credibility however IMHO and experience 40 % growth rates are very very unsustainable for any company, especially one where the barriers to entry are not economically or technologically substantial. Secondly, Wall Street rarely favors for long any approach to accounting methodologies that don't add cash directly to the bottom line. AOL can hardly be considered a start up company.

      Al the best, Profiteer

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