The shorts are really sweating now. You see AOL cannot drop below 118 because too many people shorted at 117 and below. The people who control the stock know they can wait the shorts out forever. HA ! HA ! HA ! Shorts must decide whether to cover now and take a small loss or wait a few days and take a huge loss when AOL shoots to 130. Dont get your hopes up shorts, you will never see 117 again!
I'm still bettin' $75 (post) on 4/1, but I'll admit it may be a little on the high side. I'LL BET YOU THIS, THOUGH, ON 4/1, THE STOCK WILL BE AS HIGH AS, OR HIGHER THAN TODAY'S CLOSE)(Let's see... up 3 1/16 and climbin', while NASDAQ is flat... Hmmmmmmmm..... seems to be some continuing up^ pressure......... perhaps ataihu has the answers)? (teehee, teehee)...
I'm still bettin' $75 (post) on 4/1, but I'll admit it may be a little on the high side. I'LL BET YOU THIS, THOUGH, ON 4/1, THE STOCK WILL BE AS HIGH AS, OR HIGHER THAN TODAY'S CLOSE)(Let's see... up 3 1/16, while NASDAQ is flat... Hmmmmmmmm..... seems to be some continuing up pressure.......... perhaps ataihu has the answers)?
Seems to me that when I read that commentary, it is extremely pessimistic for any AOL future L/T increase.
That bodes well for the buddha's, dooms, aitahu, and my AOL puts for July!
And I can do several things at the same time...rake with the left and type with the right!
I'll follow buddha's principles:
Predictions (all post-split prices):
March 31, 98 $50 max
April 98 $45 max
June 98 $35 max
July 98 $30 max
The when will be by april 1. Read my analyis again.
Severity will be to two digits...read my last 5-10 posts...i have NEVER wavered.
The 10, 30 week moving average is @ 98.
I think that when the tide swings it WILL be overnight...because it will be on a simultaneous downgrade for several firms...
(check out oxford health, and netscape when they tanked)
I think the stock will go below 100 on the day it is downgraded, and I believe this will happen by 4/1
So lets see....probably by early to mid march the stock will see the downside of just under 95 (pre-split)
It WILL happen by 4/1
i agree but i still can't believe these idiots keep coming on cnbc pounding the table on aol!? up 2 7/8? why? the key is
watching block trades and institutional ownership. if it keeps going down this stock is priming for a fall. budda makes a lot of
sense BUT the market does not right now. so we can only watch for clues to what will burst this bloated balloon. i have to admit i
am stunned it has held the 120 range. one thing for sure the bears on this post sound much more mature and relaxed then the
"true believers". and i don't think we get enough opinions from fletch.!
... one of your congregation (Buddha) shows some signs of repent and maybe even rebirth? By the way, where are those SPECIFICE time and decline predictions? By the way 2 - thought you had "wreckage and damage" to attend to? (I'm sure you do, as all you nayer's have).
I like your general explanation, and only disagree with one thing... WHEN this MOMENTUM stock starts to lose steam, and it will, IT WILL NOT, I REPEAT NOT, OCCUR OVERNIGHT; IN A WEEK, OR A MONTH! It WILL be a flattening over time, then, WHEN it's gonna' reverse, it'll start a GRADUAL reversal decline!
This will give SAVVY longers plenty of time to retreat VERY PROFITABLY, and, it'll most likely not provide put'rs the kind of RAPID REVERSAL they're gonna' need to recover their huge losses (for those who indeed had the balls to bet against this train - I suspect most of the nayer posters on this board do not walk-their-talk)!
If you disagree with me, PLEASE, reply with your reversal predictions WITH MORE SPECIFICS (WHEN? SEVERITY?). Good Luck!
Very insightful commentary!
Wonder if the longs can read the entire passage to gain better understanding?
I bot real cheap July 98 puts when aol hit $117!
Plenty of time and I agree, april and july areas are key, and I have NO DOUBT this piece of junk will make us wealthier on the put side!
whadya say dooms?
... it's tough duty, but somebody's gotta do it. Notice how quiet it is today now that it opened higher and is going higher? (up 2 5/16 - teehee, teehee)... The great thing about being a longer here is, it's up 9 out of 10 days, so we've got a hell of a lot more ammo for dueling with our unarmed adversaries! Nayers' - again - when, specifically, is the stock gonna' tank, and how much, specifically over what, specifically, period of time? COME BACK?
Good Fortune, Row, my man... Take the watch... I'm gettin' bored by nayer absence...