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Time Warner Inc. Message Board

  • upandup20 upandup20 Apr 20, 1999 10:30 PM Flag

    My fellow longs, I need help, can you

    help me. Anyone got the instinet quote for AOl? This is the best message board on Yahoo. The longs here support each other. I must admit, you longs are cool.

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    • I heard that the IPO for Log on America (LOAX) on
      National NASDAQ will come out today (Wed.) or Tomorrow
      (Thurs.). I looks like a hot one. For more discussion visit
      its messages under yahoo msg boards - ipo- LOAX. Here
      is an excerpt from an earlier message of mine
      FYI...


      This message is to all my investor friends out there
      in cyberspace. I feel it is important to write this
      message because I've noticed that these boards are great
      venues for people to talk about stocks and share
      knowledge. However, do your homework too. For these boards
      are all "hearsay." Base your decision on whether or
      not to buy on the proper mix of hearsay and facts.
      For more facts about LOAX "Log on America" I
      recommend that you visit the following websites:


      www.ipo.com
      www.ipocentral.com
      www.ipomonitor.com

      www.freeedgar.com
      www.ipo-fund.com

      When you get to these
      sites use the search key to look up "Log on America"
      These sites provide valuable facts about the
      company.

      Here are some facts I've learned through my
      research:

      Fact 1) The company is a strategic partner with Cisco
      Systems and Nortel. Also, LOA has Shastri Divakaruni and
      David Robert on its board of directors. Mr. Divakaruni
      workes at Cisco Systems as a Director of at least two
      key divisions, including Director of Service Provider
      Marketing and Director of Broadband Fixed Wireless
      Engineering. Mr. Robert has worked for Northern Telecom in
      various capacities, including Software Systems Engineer,
      Product Marketing Specialist, Sales Manager and,
      currently, VP of Sales for Nortel Major Accounts. (My
      opinion: The fact that LOA is a strategic partner with the
      two technology powerhouses shows that they are moving
      in the right direction, have access to cutting edge
      equipment and is poised to grow by leaps and bounds. Also,
      the fact that both Cisco Systems and Nortel have
      management on LOA's Board of Directors shows their support
      and belief that LOA is the perfect company to be
      involved with. The fact that these companies are willing
      to invest their time, energy and key management in
      LOA, makes LOA a good investment to me.)

      Fact
      2)LOAX's vision appears to be to build a highly
      sophisticated network for phone, internet, video, audio, and
      cable TV programming throughout the North Eastern
      United States. They appear to be well on their way and
      with the funds received from the IPO and the backing
      of Cisco and Nortel this should progress rapidly.
      They already have been approved in RI as an authorized
      CLEC. For more info on these aspects see
      www.freeedgar.com. (My opinion... This is the right strategy and the
      right goals for this type of industry)
      etc...

      Best Regards,
      Stockguy

    • $5,000.00 to $80,000.00?????

      Goos Luck!

    • I started with 700 share on july 1998. and I buy
      more when I have chance like 400 0n august,300 on
      oct.,450 on jan99,1800 on jan.99,1800 on jan99,1000 on
      late jan99,1000 on mar.99,2500 on apr99, I started
      700share x $115 =$80,500 now I own 15000 share I think
      it's going to be 30,000 soon stock price will be up
      and down but number of my stock will go up oneway!!
      My margin is $900,000. I wish you luck!!!.

    • sell when
      the next time it's spliting, because i know that when
      ever it split the prince always drop on the following
      2 weeks or so i can buy it back for the cheaper
      price....

    • I totally disagree with your math...READ this, go
      to sleep, then buy AOL in the morning...

      A
      historic event occurred in the life of the Internet today,
      with America Online eclipsing IBM in market value for
      the first time ever. With the passing of that
      milestone it's time to take another look at a quick "pieces
      of the whole" AOL valuation.

      The first
      component to the whole is America Online's traditional
      dial-up service business. Between AOL, Compuserve, and
      AOL International there are approximately 19 million
      members. Comcast's recent acquisition of cable giant Media
      One valued each subscriber at over $5,000. We believe
      that a cable valuation is a fair comparison for this
      segment. Each business counts on a steady stream of cash
      flow from subscribers, with additional revenues from
      advertising sales. AOL's advertising potential is much vaster
      than a cable network, thus justifying at least a
      $7,500 per subscriber valuation. Valuing America
      Online's dial-up services at $5,000 per subscriber yields
      a segment value of $142.5 billion.

      The next
      piece of the America Online empire is the AOL family of
      sites. AOL.com ranks number one on Media Metrix's
      rankings, and Netscape Netcenter ranks #7. Comparable sites
      for each of these properties include Yahoo for
      AOL.com and Excite for Netcenter. Current market caps for
      Yahoo and Excite are $44 billion and $7.5 billion.
      Adding these values together gives America Onlines's web
      sites a $51.5 billion valuation.

      Finally, there
      is America Online's fastest growing property: ICQ.
      ICQ is actively used by around 5 million of its 25
      million subscribers. Valuing each of these users at
      $3,000 yields a value of $15 billion.

      A pieces of
      the whole suggests a current valuation of $209
      billion for America Online. That's $204 a share, and not
      at all unthinkable.

    • Will 20,000 dollors in AOL be in 2 years

    • It sounds amazing that people are now waiting for
      earnings reports from AOL and other internet stocks when
      valuations are based on NO EARNINGS.

      Do you want a
      FAIR market value on the stock? Here it is:
      Average
      AOL Growth 50% per year (too high especially when
      other competitors are already jumping in, i.e MSFT,
      ATHM, etc.) but let's assume it for now.

      Average
      S&P500 stock PE say 30. Assume a very optimistic growth
      of 10% for average stock in next 5 yrs.

      Then
      say AOL should be at 5x30=150 PE .

      However,
      today's PE is 530 and stock is at about $130.

      To
      find fair value adjust to the lower PE and price, and
      you get (150/530)x130=$37 per share.

      So that
      leads us to a market value of 35B for AOL which is more
      realistic than anything we have seen lately.

      $37 per
      share = FAIR AOL VALUE TODAY 4/21/99.

      Any
      ideas............?

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