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Time Warner Inc. Message Board

  • longjohnholder longjohnholder May 8, 1999 2:52 AM Flag

    Armstrong is like a lost puppy. . .

    One guy. No experience in the field. Trying to go
    in ten different directions. Assembling a hodgepodge
    of cable assets, and leaving loose ends that will
    take 5 to 10 years to tie together, if at all. He
    should stick to long distance. The visionaries in this
    field are Ebbers and Case; that's why the coalition
    makes sense. That's why it had to happen. What's more,
    Armstrong is dilluting the stock for years to come. He will
    fail. Believe it. It will happen. Ebbers and Case
    backed away from UMG, because they had sense enough to
    know that $54 billion was too high. So Armstrong got
    it. But now that he has it--like the dog chasing the
    truck wheel--what's he going to do with it? Answer:
    Nothing (for at least the next five years). And by that
    time, Ebbers and Case will have reinvented the way
    internet business is done. Wait and see. Remember, $10,000
    invested in AOL stock 5 years ago grew to $1.74 million,
    and the best is yet to come. I'm backing up the truck
    Monday AM and buying all I can get my hands on at under
    $120. ljh

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • For those wondering, i am from zahle, in lebanon, and live in NY... where are all of you?

    • Internet stocks are very oversold right now...
      look at AMZN, YHOO et al... the market can be brutal
      to both longs and shorts... unfortunately for the
      shorts they are running into greater risk of being short
      squeezed at these levels than a week ago.

      ATT cable
      deal or not, momentum will rule... once AOL catches
      steam again momentum traders will push this stock
      higher... especially knowing that it attracted a lot of
      short sellers lately.

      - Paralia

    • Sorry to have to disagree with your short
      picks... NSOL will be the best by far, from a hi of $153,
      it sits at $62, on it's way to $11...

      Other
      Sinkers:

      AOL $76
      MSFT $63
      SUNW $42
      ATHM $111
      NETA
      $7
      EFAX $12
      AMZN $109
      YHOO $115
      VRSN
      $48

      Just a sampling...

      >><<

    • Fidelity info old- AOL still #4 holding in big M.
      If it
      goes down to $96, I'll buy 500 more. Want
      something
      to short, Mr. Chickenfeet, try T- that one's heading
      to
      the 40's by July. Why? Same reason as before. Here's
      two
      to short: CHV and AA- oil stocks and
      cyclicals have had
      their run- the real money will return
      to the future- the
      techs. When? Maybe two people
      know, that's all. Long
      from here will get you a
      hard-on.

    • AOL @ $76 in a week, based on Neural Networking model... Probably due to hedge fund and Fidelity magellan & growth fund selling, as has been reported in the press...

      >><<

    • I don't see it going below $100 especially considering the
      number that got in over current price and will probably
      hold and average down.

    • Great post longjohnholder! Back in 96 I invested
      in UUNet when it was $44/share. Then AT & T
      announced that they are entering the internet business.
      Well guess what? UUNET tanked down to $26 in a matter
      of weeks because of big bully AT & T. I held on to
      UUNET and now those UUNET shares are trading at the
      equivalent of $400/share! They were bought out by MFS and
      subsequently WCOM. And AT & T? Well, if I bought AT & T stock
      at the same time I bought UUNET I would have doubled
      my money. Instead I made 8 times my money!

      I
      am not knocking AT & T. They are a strong OLD
      company that will never realize what they are claiming
      they will do. Cable is a gret resource to enter homes
      but it is not going to be as great as phone. That is
      why Bernie Ebbers (WCOM) and Steve Case (AOL) have
      not and, most likely, will not aggressively pursue
      cable. Armstrong is the stodgy old ego driven corporate
      mind who is trying to be the be-all and end-all. His
      ability to negotiate and cooperate leave much to be
      desired. Ebbers and Case are buddies because they have
      similar personalities and goals. They are visionaries who
      have been laughed at, doubted and scorned over the
      years and have come out on top. Armstrong will learn
      the hard way that these two guys are the type he
      needs to align himself WITH and not against.


      Longs, relax and do not listen to the clamor of the
      shorts. Most do not even know what is going on except for
      what the hear on CNBC and read in the papers. This is
      the time the shorts love to scream because they know
      the longs are nervous. Just go back to the summer of
      '98 AOL posts on the Yahoo! boards and see how the
      shorts were screaming at that time too. I have been
      through TWO 50% declines in AOL and each time AOL rises
      above their old high. DSL will be popping up all over
      the country within a year and will have a nice lead
      over cable. By the time cable is upgraded to handler
      the internet all over the US DSL will already be used
      by most and no one will care to switch. AT & T is
      famous for being a blowhard and then getting crushed.
      Why do you think they only trade at a 25 P/E? AtHome
      is just a high speed service with poor content and
      is not very user-friendly. Not to mention that their
      CEO (IMHO) is no brain surgeon.

      If I felt AT
      & Twere going to do well in the cable market then I
      would sell AOL in a heartbeat and buy AT & T. Heck, I
      have a $4.75 cost basis on AOL. Would I buy AOL now?
      In the words of Ash Rajan "without even flinching".
      I already have bought more at these levels. I am
      buying Steve Case and (indirectly) Bernie Ebbers (not to
      mention, Bob Pittman who is not accustomed to failure.
      EVER!). If Case ever left AOL then I would leave too and
      buy into whatever he is doing.

      Case didn't
      quit when he was losing $200 million a year. He sure
      isn't throwing in the towel when he is bringing in $5
      billion a year! Think about it. It is a
      no-brainer!

      Go AOL!

      • 3 Replies to KurtVedder
      • You done good! And you're going to do even
        better. A $10,000 investment in AOL stock 5 years ago
        grew to $1.74 million, according to recent S&P Report.
        The best days are still AHEAD of this company, not
        BEHIND it. Armstrong is piling up debt and dilluting
        shareholder value for years to come. He is not a visionary,
        just an accumulator. T is a lumbering giant that's
        about to take a smooth, white stone right between the
        eyes. Bet on Ebbers and Case. They have the right
        stuff. Their leaders, not followers. Buying all of the
        AOL stock I can get my hands on Monday AM, hopefully
        at a price under $120, although that figure now
        looks impossible. Please, panic sellers, dump your
        shares early Monday. I want them at bargain basement
        prices. ljh

      • have to be remodeled over the next 6 months. AOL
        will have to make deals/aquisitions forcing the
        Analysts within one year to look at AOL AND "T" in a NEW
        LIGHT. These are truths ignore them and you will get
        burned by one maybe both.

        In the next six months
        AOL Analysts will be forced to rethink Valuations
        based on what AOL does in the next 6 months and they
        will DO SOMETHING ALTHOUGH, ITS YET UNCLEAR WHAT.
        This, until then is LIMBO. If you are foolish enough to
        fall in love with a stock and not realize the
        landscape is changing rapidly thats your
        problem!

        The Market is telling AOL they don't like this
        uncertainty, and the big block sells all week are the
        evidence. Pay attention to the Market, not history of AOL,
        times are changing!

      • <EOM>

    • informative post. Your logic is impeccable, something that the hypsterson this board, both short and long, generally lack.

      Thank you again and good luck to you too!!!

      Plane

    • to be released on May 19th, AOL Investors Day. "Nova" posted URL last evening.

      Good luck!!!

    • if you think the text of what Jim Dines said last
      night was exciting, you should have seen him. He was
      like a five year old in a candy store when he was
      talking about the net stocks, especially AOL. He has an
      incredible track record. When Paul Kangas asked if he was
      concerned about the recent sell-off, he said absolutely
      not, that these stocks, AOL, CMGI, AMZN, RLNK, will
      make higher highs than anyone thought they
      would...this year!

      Good luck...I very rarely post, but
      read them often, and always enjoy your posts, Gosp. A
      voice of reason amid all the nonsense usually posted
      really helps. IMHO, nothing has changed fundamentally.
      Whenever AOL discussed cable in the past, or any analyst
      did, UMG was never mentioned as the only solution. So
      suddenly ATT buys the number 4 cable company and AOL is
      dead. Not likely. I also have ATT, but expect to
      continue making much more with AOl. Also, didn;t we hit
      115 a couple of weeks ago, only to travel back to 160
      a week after that (near earnings)? This is a very
      dynamic industry, a very volatile market, and no one, not
      even the saavy analysts on this board, could possible
      declare the end of AOL.

      Good luck!

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