One guy. No experience in the field. Trying to go
in ten different directions. Assembling a hodgepodge
of cable assets, and leaving loose ends that will
take 5 to 10 years to tie together, if at all. He
should stick to long distance. The visionaries in this
field are Ebbers and Case; that's why the coalition
makes sense. That's why it had to happen. What's more,
Armstrong is dilluting the stock for years to come. He will
fail. Believe it. It will happen. Ebbers and Case
backed away from UMG, because they had sense enough to
know that $54 billion was too high. So Armstrong got
it. But now that he has it--like the dog chasing the
truck wheel--what's he going to do with it? Answer:
Nothing (for at least the next five years). And by that
time, Ebbers and Case will have reinvented the way
internet business is done. Wait and see. Remember, $10,000
invested in AOL stock 5 years ago grew to $1.74 million,
and the best is yet to come. I'm backing up the truck
Monday AM and buying all I can get my hands on at under
Internet stocks are very oversold right now...
look at AMZN, YHOO et al... the market can be brutal
to both longs and shorts... unfortunately for the
shorts they are running into greater risk of being short
squeezed at these levels than a week ago.
deal or not, momentum will rule... once AOL catches
steam again momentum traders will push this stock
higher... especially knowing that it attracted a lot of
short sellers lately.
Sorry to have to disagree with your short
picks... NSOL will be the best by far, from a hi of $153,
it sits at $62, on it's way to $11...
Just a sampling...
Fidelity info old- AOL still #4 holding in big M.
goes down to $96, I'll buy 500 more. Want
to short, Mr. Chickenfeet, try T- that one's heading
the 40's by July. Why? Same reason as before. Here's
to short: CHV and AA- oil stocks and
cyclicals have had
their run- the real money will return
to the future- the
techs. When? Maybe two people
know, that's all. Long
from here will get you a
Great post longjohnholder! Back in 96 I invested
in UUNet when it was $44/share. Then AT & T
announced that they are entering the internet business.
Well guess what? UUNET tanked down to $26 in a matter
of weeks because of big bully AT & T. I held on to
UUNET and now those UUNET shares are trading at the
equivalent of $400/share! They were bought out by MFS and
subsequently WCOM. And AT & T? Well, if I bought AT & T stock
at the same time I bought UUNET I would have doubled
my money. Instead I made 8 times my money!
am not knocking AT & T. They are a strong OLD
company that will never realize what they are claiming
they will do. Cable is a gret resource to enter homes
but it is not going to be as great as phone. That is
why Bernie Ebbers (WCOM) and Steve Case (AOL) have
not and, most likely, will not aggressively pursue
cable. Armstrong is the stodgy old ego driven corporate
mind who is trying to be the be-all and end-all. His
ability to negotiate and cooperate leave much to be
desired. Ebbers and Case are buddies because they have
similar personalities and goals. They are visionaries who
have been laughed at, doubted and scorned over the
years and have come out on top. Armstrong will learn
the hard way that these two guys are the type he
needs to align himself WITH and not against.
Longs, relax and do not listen to the clamor of the
shorts. Most do not even know what is going on except for
what the hear on CNBC and read in the papers. This is
the time the shorts love to scream because they know
the longs are nervous. Just go back to the summer of
'98 AOL posts on the Yahoo! boards and see how the
shorts were screaming at that time too. I have been
through TWO 50% declines in AOL and each time AOL rises
above their old high. DSL will be popping up all over
the country within a year and will have a nice lead
over cable. By the time cable is upgraded to handler
the internet all over the US DSL will already be used
by most and no one will care to switch. AT & T is
famous for being a blowhard and then getting crushed.
Why do you think they only trade at a 25 P/E? AtHome
is just a high speed service with poor content and
is not very user-friendly. Not to mention that their
CEO (IMHO) is no brain surgeon.
If I felt AT
& Twere going to do well in the cable market then I
would sell AOL in a heartbeat and buy AT & T. Heck, I
have a $4.75 cost basis on AOL. Would I buy AOL now?
In the words of Ash Rajan "without even flinching".
I already have bought more at these levels. I am
buying Steve Case and (indirectly) Bernie Ebbers (not to
mention, Bob Pittman who is not accustomed to failure.
EVER!). If Case ever left AOL then I would leave too and
buy into whatever he is doing.
quit when he was losing $200 million a year. He sure
isn't throwing in the towel when he is bringing in $5
billion a year! Think about it. It is a
You done good! And you're going to do even
better. A $10,000 investment in AOL stock 5 years ago
grew to $1.74 million, according to recent S&P Report.
The best days are still AHEAD of this company, not
BEHIND it. Armstrong is piling up debt and dilluting
shareholder value for years to come. He is not a visionary,
just an accumulator. T is a lumbering giant that's
about to take a smooth, white stone right between the
eyes. Bet on Ebbers and Case. They have the right
stuff. Their leaders, not followers. Buying all of the
AOL stock I can get my hands on Monday AM, hopefully
at a price under $120, although that figure now
looks impossible. Please, panic sellers, dump your
shares early Monday. I want them at bargain basement
have to be remodeled over the next 6 months. AOL
will have to make deals/aquisitions forcing the
Analysts within one year to look at AOL AND "T" in a NEW
LIGHT. These are truths ignore them and you will get
burned by one maybe both.
In the next six months
AOL Analysts will be forced to rethink Valuations
based on what AOL does in the next 6 months and they
will DO SOMETHING ALTHOUGH, ITS YET UNCLEAR WHAT.
This, until then is LIMBO. If you are foolish enough to
fall in love with a stock and not realize the
landscape is changing rapidly thats your
The Market is telling AOL they don't like this
uncertainty, and the big block sells all week are the
evidence. Pay attention to the Market, not history of AOL,
times are changing!
if you think the text of what Jim Dines said last
night was exciting, you should have seen him. He was
like a five year old in a candy store when he was
talking about the net stocks, especially AOL. He has an
incredible track record. When Paul Kangas asked if he was
concerned about the recent sell-off, he said absolutely
not, that these stocks, AOL, CMGI, AMZN, RLNK, will
make higher highs than anyone thought they
Good luck...I very rarely post, but
read them often, and always enjoy your posts, Gosp. A
voice of reason amid all the nonsense usually posted
really helps. IMHO, nothing has changed fundamentally.
Whenever AOL discussed cable in the past, or any analyst
did, UMG was never mentioned as the only solution. So
suddenly ATT buys the number 4 cable company and AOL is
dead. Not likely. I also have ATT, but expect to
continue making much more with AOl. Also, didn;t we hit
115 a couple of weeks ago, only to travel back to 160
a week after that (near earnings)? This is a very
dynamic industry, a very volatile market, and no one, not
even the saavy analysts on this board, could possible
declare the end of AOL.