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Time Warner Inc. Message Board

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  • no1ledzepfan no1ledzepfan Jun 6, 1999 1:58 AM Flag

    Another story on the ruling from Wired

    First of all, not short. No longer long. No
    position. Like AOL, but not at the price, and particularly
    not now. People, you need to have a time horizon
    longer than next week. I trade stocks and options short
    term, and have long term holders I won't touch.
    Interest rates are going up. On June 30? My guess is no.
    Between now and the end of the year? Yes. Y2K is going to
    tank the market, my guess - starts around August. Pull
    a chart on damn near any stock. Chart next year
    will look just a year ago. We're in for a big drop in
    late summer due to rate hikes and Y2K. Do I think it
    is justified (Y2K)? No. But it is a known event,
    some people are paranoid, and institutions will take
    full advantage of the potential frenzy to make money
    on the short side. It's going to be ugly. Internet
    stocks, even AOL which is clearly a blue chip in the
    sector, are going to get pounded. Any stock perceived as
    overvalued will get trashed. I like AOLs position going
    forward, a little concerned about broadband access, but it
    looks like the govt may work the issue for AOL and
    others. Just can't justify the price right now. I think
    I'll be able to buy at $50-60 towards the end of the
    year, which would still put the P/E around 100, but
    seems in the ballpark based on the growth rate.
    Internet stocks are a more dangerous place than ever to
    have money in now. Good luck.

 
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