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Time Warner Inc. Message Board

  • af_matt af_matt Jun 14, 1999 10:21 AM Flag

    Food for thought

    You want to see a pop in this stock, wait until
    they beat the projected earnings.
    Hmmm, if they
    just meet the street they increased earnings by over
    96%.
    The name of the game buy low and sell high, well
    we�ve lost over 80 points, I�m willing to take the
    chance that AOL will be at it�s new highs within the
    next two years. Than I can double my money and start
    over again on another board where the sky is falling
    forever. Come on people, 17 dollars a share for a company
    that�s growing faster than CSCO, MSFT, DELL. This is the
    staple food of the internet. The simple fact is they�ve
    just started to grow, wait until they touch the rest
    of the world, the US is small in comparison.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • miracle, and maybe a few more Methodist's too!!!!!!

    • You would be correct if AOL was a traditional
      blue-chip company. But AOL is not a "traditional blue-chip
      company, it's a high-growth company. High-growth companies
      carry higher PE multiples because of their high-growth.
      Look at Cisco which is trading at a PE ratio of
      95.

      The expected annual earnings rate (per the analysts)
      for AOL for the next five years is 50.8%. The current
      EPS number is .35$.
      If you take .35$ multiplied by
      50.8% five times you get an EPS of $2.73 in five years.
      I take 5 years because AOL is a long-term
      investment.

      Let's say AOL should have a PE ratio of 95 (I chose
      this since Cisco has this current PE number). If you
      take 95 times $2.73 you get a fair AOL price in 3-4
      years of $259. If you can triple your money in 3 years,
      I say do it.

      People shouldn't invest in a
      company such as AOL unless they know what they are doing.
      But once you, you'll realize it's a potentially
      oustanding, albeit risky investment.

    • from this weeks
      http://www.the-adviser.com



      America Online (AOL) provides Internet online
      services
      such as electronic mail, conferencing, software,
      computing support,
      interactive magazines and
      newspapers, and online classes, as well
      as access to
      services of the Internet. For the nine months ended

      3/31/99, total revenues rose 58% to $3.4 billion. Net
      income totaled
      $618 million vs. a net loss of $80
      million. Revenues reflect increased
      advertising on AOL
      service and higher commerce fees. Earnings
      reflect
      gains from the sale of Excite investments.

      AOL
      is the undisputed leader in dial-up service to the
      Internet with its
      16 million subscribers. The next
      closest services are EarthLink
      Network Inc. and
      MindSpring Enterprises Inc. AT&T seems more
      interested
      in concentrating on its core telephone business.
      Microsoft
      Network, also, is focusing on other segments.
      Even though two-thirds
      of America has yet to get
      online from home.

      Although we were positive on
      the stock no more than 45 days
      ago, recent
      overseas developments have suddenly changed
      the AOL
      business model. Internet access is being given away

      free. AOL, which charge premium monthly fees (over $20
      US
      dollars), now finds itself with the sudden
      possibility of losing
      this annuity type revenue.
      The-Adviser.com is exclusively
      reporting that AOL is
      considering a very aggressive price
      cutting strategy to
      thwart customer losses and maintain
      loyalty.

    • <EOM>

    • Putty? Are you trying to say the plane, the plane-ala Fantasy Island? Or are you doing the Hindenburg mantra?

    • I'm not a short and I was once on long. I rode a
      wild ride on this stock for many years. AOL has done
      me well but I dumped it about 2 months ago when I
      felt that it was just so overvalued it was ridiculous
      to buy. I still think it is very much overvalued and
      investors that have been trained to buy on the dips are
      going to get screwed. Stocks do not, in general, go up
      hundreds of percent a year and this Internet craze will
      end just as fast as it began. Not to say AOL is not a
      good company, nor that the internet is bad and all the
      companies in it are going to fail. Just that many of the
      names investors have placed so much faith in will not
      be there several years from now and the ones that
      will be there have already taken into account 3-6
      years of earnings. AOL will be a market leader for many
      more years to come and it will need to because it's
      earnings and growth have a long way to go to catch up with
      it's current valuation. .com does not make a stock
      valuable nor does name recognation, but if your paying
      200-300x earnings or anything insane like that then your
      going to get burned. Just a warning play as you like
      after all it's your money. Just don't bitch when you
      get a margin call or lose 80% of your holding.

    • Lock in whatever profit you have left.

    • keep your comments about jews out JERK !

    • is the truth, if you answer yes to any of these then you need to buy US Government Bonds


      The Rat Lives.............

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